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Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: roto who wrote (186933)	11/6/2020 8:14:30 AM
From: neolib	Respond to of 367808

Yeah, the only problem is if the counting stops when its claimed when its only 96% because something has been off been the the reported % and how many ballots remain. There were some odds hints of that last night, but as of right now, with 18K at 95%, the next 1% takes it for Biden, and he grows from there. If the % reporting is correct, Biden could easily end up +100K which is a number that was tossed out some time ago. I recall that WI was stock at 97% for a long time with the very numbers they ended up with. They didn't go up. They just suddenly switched from saying 97% to saying 99%. PA can do that do as long as we get to 96% first or better well through 97%, which would give a nice margin of 20-30K or so.

To: roto who wrote (186933)	11/6/2020 8:45:07 AM
From: neolib	Respond to of 367808

OK, here is an update: Trump currently holds an edge of about 16,000-18,000 votes, and there are "north of" 150,000-160,000 ballots left to be counted in the Keystone State, abcnews.go.com So with 150-160K left we should expect at least another 30+K delta putting Biden up by > 10K. It could easily be > 20K IMHO if you take the shift that has happened since they said 275K were left it has shifted by more like 36K in that 125K change of remaining ballots, so that would say 40-45K swing might be still left in the pipeline here. That would mean +20-30K for Biden. But note, this is much less than the 95% has currently lead us to estimate. If there were still fully 5% out there Biden would hit 100K or more. I'll take 10K happily. I hope its at least that to give margin against any recount nonsense Trump might try. GA IMHO, while I'm delighted it has switched to Biden is not a big enough margin to be safe against tricks played in a hard fought recount. Just read the extensive games played in the 2000 FL recount. Everything in the book will be tried in GA if it hinges on GA, and the Reps play that game harder than the Dems. The Dems look for accuracy/fairness in the recounts while the Reps look for advantage and to win.