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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (164846)	11/11/2020 7:33:34 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217768

Updates on the post to which this is a reply... ? We've done the 10%+ bounce on SQQQ... and backed away again... still just below the +10% level. Competing forces in the market... between Democrats suddenly deciding "Hey, we don't need no stinking lockdown"... now that there's no electoral advantage to win by trying to sustain that... in every sphere except the protests which were exempt from it anyway ? LOL!!! Cynicism absolutely the right view of it... without that mattering in terms of the future impact of the end of enforced stupidity.... even if they're quite wrong about their reason in doing it... The relief rally is fueled by that in part... and in part by Fed funny money... and in part by the still persistent illusion that the election is over... I think a sort is needed... as issue specific trends will tend to tie specific shares to one of those narratives more than the others... and the cliffs edge doesn't seem to add a fourth item in the list yet. It is genuinely positive that the suppression of the economy with false virus fear mongering... is ending. It is not positive... that the manipulation continues, now by partisans and media foolishly insisting the election is over when it very clearly isn't close to that... So there is a very predictable event or two coming and risk in consequence... soon... perhaps leaving SQQQ unlikely to revisit Mondy's $18.12 low... so, worth holding that as an already paid for risk... IMO. Expect it should be a safe enough bet for the next 30 days or so... although monitoring events day to day still necessary to avoid being blind-sided by surprises... some of which might go against "common wisdom" in terms of market impacts.... while others are... predictable enough... without that meaning timing is obvious... as when the Fed goes full "whee... things are great" when they aren't... and the market slavishly goes along. The oil and gas shares, though, have a lot more forward looking interest in relation to the sudden shift in how horrible the virus sudden is not now... which is likely to remain true no matter what happens in the elections. Republican control of the Senate is assured... which means no fracking rule craziness happens... which is still mostly a state by state rather than Federal issue anyway... and no state where that makes money is going to decide to quit making that money. Republicans widened margins of control in those places. Green light the oil and gas shares independent of any election related news... with a bump in bias in the degree the economy now gets generally liberated from crazy excess in the liberal virus lockdown purgatory. How to sort out election noises from pandemonically positive news in other issues ? Much less sorting out all of that from a bigger basic reality check... a risk that will be impacting the rest of the markets... eventually... or ??? Will it? When will it ? Perhaps not until December... maybe not until March ? Don't know yet... Expect higher than normal volatility to be sustained, though. Flip side in election issues for the SQQQ related which get no pass and have unappreciated risks of a monumental scale. Short the big tech stocks... not just a chart play or about market timing, now ? SQQQ captures upside potential in big risks the markets are not even considering as possible right now... that isn't market risk... but company risk of the sort not seen since AT&T got broken up. Could Google find itself being ended, soon ? It could be broken up, of course, in an AT&T like move... at some point... but, it could also commit suicide tomorrow... with a single misjudgement... which I find likely enough to make it worth waiting to see what happens tomorrow after the close.