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To: Real Man who wrote (113125)11/13/2020 2:27:06 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Respond to of 116957
 
The Fed, and pretty much all the major central banks with the exception of China, do not have a choice but to inflate their way out of the national debt. This is about as certain as you could be on anything related to the markets.

I did the calculations the a few weeks ago and on a debt/tax-revenue metric the US above Mozambique and below Greece, but not by much. That is not a strong place for a country to be. So the kinds of "free market" operations (or lack thereof) that you are thinking about are beyond US' ability.

Given that reality, there is a limited window as asset prices adjust and I advise everyone to take advantage of it. This doesn't mean that we will not be hit with a bankruptcy wave. Likely we will. But that will affect the junk bond market more than anything else. Are we going to be hit with a mortgage delinquency wave? Perhaps, but that too will only affect the non-agency mortgages as the Fed has pretty much guaranteed the Fannie Mae and Co bonds.

The overall trend is very clear, even if you experience volatile waves riding that trend.