To: Rarebird who wrote (113197 ) 11/14/2020 3:16:35 PM From: RetiredNow Respond to For infections, here's what I believe is going on and what I think we can do about it. First, we have to be careful not to get too alarmed about cases. Rapid testing across the country has proliferated. I myself have now been tested twice, because they are now becoming so prevalent in a bunch of places near where I live and the cost is free. So for a long time, we have all been demanding pervasive, fast, and free testing. We now have it. Well guess what that means for cases? A vast increase in positive tests! It is not necessarily true that the number of cases are increasing, but rather, we can now SEE the cases. The reality is that when you have massive amounts of protests and rallies and vacationers and kids going back to college, then positive cases will rise. It is what it is. Lockdowns have never worked. So watching cases will make us all hysterical and they are not the indicators that we need to watch. # of deaths on a 7 day moving average - this one has now reached the hi of the summer, so not good, but also not time to panic yet hospital and ICU capacity and utilization - this one is very spotty. In most places, this is very well under control, but in large dense cities they are reaching 90%+ capacity. That is where we need to be careful and make sure they have surge capacity. Infectious mortality rate - this has been plunging. why? as we see more positive cases in the denominator, this rate continues to go down and we start to realize this looks a heck of a lot more like the flu and less like the dreaded 1918 pandemic. Avg age of deaths - right now it sits at 76 in the US and the avg co-morbidities sits at 2.6 of those who died Average survivability at various age groups - under 70 survivability = 99.5%, under 21 = 99.98% - this tells us who should be locked down. We need to take extra care with people over 70 and in nursing homes. These are the highest at risk, but for the younger folks, let them go about their lives. in fact, we need for the under 70 to reach herd immunity, so that eventually we can get back to normal. Herd immunity can be achieved through natural infection or through vaccination. Those should be the choices of the people under 70 with no coercion from the government. For myself, I'll stay socially distanced, but for others, they should be free to decide, as I am currently. Kids and college age students have virtually no chance of dying from this. Most don't even experience symptoms. it is cruel and unusual punishment to lock them down in the peak of their youth.
