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To: ggersh who wrote (165168)11/17/2020 7:52:53 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218664
 
trade wars are easy to win, just like it is easy to get sex, as long as one is willing to consume by oneself



To: ggersh who wrote (165168)11/17/2020 8:07:45 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218664
 
Oh golly, even as Team Biden is not allowed to transit to rule, and Team Trump might still win, the usual suspect Bloomberg is already championing upping the tempo of war

bloomberg.com

Biden Risks Ceding Asia's Digital Oil to China

It’s all about data. The U.S. needs to get back into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or watch Beijing make the rules.

Andy Mukherjee
18 November 2020, 07:00 GMT+8



The stakes are different since this meeting in California eight years ago.

Photographer: Bloomberg

Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services. He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He has also worked for the Straits Times, ET NOW and Bloomberg News.
Read more opinion Follow @andymukherjee70 on Twitter

LISTEN TO ARTICLE
Now that Asia has stitched together the world’s biggest trading bloc, U.S. financial and tech firms ought to be more than a little worried.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, will bind the 10 economies of Southeast Asia with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, creating a prototype of what my colleague David Fickling describes as “a sort of Pax Sinica,” a Beijing-led global order.

To provide a counterweight, the U.S. needs the Trans-Pacific Partnership. President Donald Trump backed out four years ago. 1 Japan is keen for Joe Biden, as the next president, to reverse the exit. But the goal of a U.S. pivot to Asia can’t solely be to encircle China. The objective must be to establish rules for ownership and use of Asian consumers’ financial and e-commerce data, a commodity that is set to become more valuable in this century than perhaps even oil was in the last.

The main risk to U.S. firms from Washington’s isolationism isn’t trade. Both as the world’s consumer of last resort and provider of the currency in which most things are bought and sold, the U.S. might retain enough leverage on global commerce. It can offer bilateral deals to important trading partners who’ll jump at the chance of getting easier access to the American market. But multilateral agreements like TPP are useful for establishing standards. That’s important when those are sorely lacking, which is the case for data, the raw material that consumers in Asia provide for free to the likes of Visa Inc. and PayPal Holdings Inc., as well as to Facebook Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.

Take the agreement on financial services in the new trade deal. It saysthat signatory nations will not prevent “transfers of data by electronic or other means, necessary for the conduct of the ordinary business of a financial service supplier in its territory.” However, in the two subsequent paragraphs, we learn that countries can still insist on local copies of records. They can also restrict cross-border transfers that flout their regulations on “personal data, personal privacy, and the confidentiality of individual records.”

Ditto for electronic commerce: There are rules, but with broad escape hatches. A shopping website can freely send data overseas, and it won’t be required to maintain servers in the countries where it’s doing business. All of that can change if there’s a “legitimate public policy objective” or an “essential security interest.” If that wasn’t vague enough, e-commerce will only be brought under the RCEP’s proposed dispute settlement mechanism after a review. It’s a formula for endless delay, and even then, will only apply to countries that accept external adjudication.

Anti-free-trade groups like bilaterals.org have noted that TPP’s stricter digital trade rules would have won more ironclad guarantees for dominant tech companies. The RCEP has put a brake on that by tilting power back toward governments.

But from a globalization perspective, this is America’s retreat from its historic standards-setting role in everything from accounting to food safety, a development that worries scholars like Evan Feigenbuam at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Silicon Valley firms should also be nervous. Their business model is to sell access to processed information — and its predictive power — again and again.

As Columbia Law School professor Katharina Pistor argues in her paper, “Rule by Data: The End of Markets?”, Big Tech treats raw information as “wild animals: things that belong to no one but can be claimed by whoever catches them first.” This lawlessness can’t last. Governments are threatening to wield the stick, at least against the more egregious use of market power that comes from owning data. The European Union is investigating whether Amazon uses sales records of independent sellers to give an unfair advantage to its own retail arm. Potential fines can be as high as 10% of annual sales.

Being in the driving seat of an accord like the TPP means that the U.S. can help write the rules. The diplomatic goal would be to strike a bargain: force U.S. tech and financial services firms to share a part of their supersize profit from algorithms with consumers both at home and overseas, while ensuring that trading partners don’t put arbitrary curbs on access, storage, transfer and processing of raw data. Should Washington not want to shoulder this responsibility, Beijing gladly will. Maybe not today, but in 10 years. And those rules, which will come into effect by closing (or not closing) the escape hatches of the RCEP, would be shared by 2.2 billion people. They would hardly favor U.S. interests.

The cheerleaders of globalization obsessed over tariffs and non-tariff barriers and didn’t pay enough attention to the supply-chain revolution, most notably in China. To continue to view the world of trade from this outdated prism would once again cause the woods to be missed for the trees. Biden needs to bring the U.S. back to Asia, and for the right reason.

TPP was then modifiedto Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade agreement between Canada, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.



This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Andy Mukherjee at amukherjee@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Patrick McDowell at pmcdowell10@bloomberg.net

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To: ggersh who wrote (165168)11/17/2020 8:17:31 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218664
 
I appreciate Trump's approach, right or wrong, just do it

he might be right in this case, and if so, neo people shall have a difficult time re-entering the morass

in the meantime sure looks Taliban winning

bloomberg.com

Trump Orders Troop Drawdown in Iraq, Afghanistan by Jan. 15

Roxana Tiron

Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to accelerate a drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Iraq to 2,500 in each nation, as the president works to deliver on his longtime pledge to exit from “endless wars” before he leaves office in January.

Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller announced the decision Tuesday at the Pentagon. The order would reduce troops from about 4,500 in Afghanistan and from about 3,000 in Iraq less than a week before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

“We will finish this generational war and bring our men and women home,” Miller, who replaced fired Secretary Mark Esper this month, told reporters at the Pentagon. The acting secretary, declining to take questions on the policy, left after reading a statement.

Speaking a few minutes after Miller, National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said at the White House that “by May it is President Trump’s hope that they will all come home safely and in their entirety.”

While the move helps Trump fulfill a campaign vow, reports on the proposal drew bipartisan criticism from lawmakers including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell before it was formally released. It also prompted a warning from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said Tuesday before the announcement that the “price for leaving too soon or in an uncoordinated way could be very high.”

‘Terror Caliphate’

“Afghanistan risks becoming once again a platform for international terrorists to plan and organize attacks on our homelands,” Stoltenberg said. He added that Islamic State, or ISIS, “could rebuild in Afghanistan the terror caliphate it lost in Syria and Iraq.”
But Miller and defense officials who briefed reporters said the acting secretary had been in touch with NATO allies as well as Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. And they insisted that the “conditions” for a drawdown had been met, even though violence in Afghanistan has climbed despite a U.S.-Taliban peace deal this year.

Pressed on exactly what conditions had been met, a senior defense official said that the drawdown posed no threat to U.S. national security and that any challenges on the ground could be met by remaining forces in the country or region. The official didn’t address conditions on the ground in Afghanistan.

“We set out to accomplish three goals in 2001,” Miller said, referring to the start of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. “First, go abroad and destroy terrorists, their organizations and their sanctuaries. Two, strengthen our defenses against future attacks, and three, prevent the continued growth of Islamist terrorism to include by working with allies and local partners to take the lead in the fight.”

Lawmakers’ Reaction
The Trump administration’s decision divided members of both parties on Capitol Hill.

McConnell, a Kentucky Republican who is usually a staunch Trump ally, said on the Senate floor Monday that there’s little support in Congress for “simply walking away” from the conflicts.

“The consequences of a premature American exit” from Afghanistan “would likely be even worse than President Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq back in 2011, which fueled the rise of ISIS and a new round of global terrorism,” McConnell said. “It would be reminiscent of the humiliating American departure from Saigon in 1975.”

Representative Mac Thornberry, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, quickly voiced his opposition.

“Increased military pressure brought the Taliban to the table and pretty much everybody agreed that further reductions would be conditions-based,” Thornberry of Texas, told reporters Tuesday at the Heritage Foundation. “The Taliban has done nothing – met no condition – that would justify this cut,” Thornberry added later in a statement.

But Representative Adam Smith, a Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee, called it the “right policy decision” if “carefully executed.”

“While the history of conflict in the region is complex and predates our direct involvement, after nearly 20 years of armed conflict, Americans and Afghans alike are ready for the violence to end,” Smith said in a statement. “It is clear that groups like ISIS-K and the Taliban will continue to fight and sow chaos, but ultimately it is up to the Afghans to find a sustainable path to peace.”

The move comes after Trump fired Esper and replaced other top officials at the Pentagon with loyalists last week. Esper sent a classified memo to the White House this month expressing concerns about additional troop cuts, the Washington Post has reported, citing two senior officials it didn’t identify.

In Kabul, Acting Defense Minister Asadullah Khalid told the Afghan parliament Tuesday, before the announcement, that there was no concern about a complete withdrawal of foreign troops.

“I don’t see any clear indication that the U.S. or NATO forces will fully withdraw from the country,” Khalid said. “Some other countries in NATO are still considering whether to remain or leave,” he said, noting Afghan forces were in charge of 96% of operations across the country and only 4% of those need foreign air support.

In a memorandum issued on Monday, Miller said his goal was to “bring the current war to an end in a responsible manner that guarantees the security of our citizens.”

Read more: End to $1 Trillion War in Afghanistan May Be on Horizon

Miller, a former Green Beret and White House counterterrorism coordinator, said in a memo Friday to all Defense Department employees that “ending wars requires compromise and partnership.”

“We met the challenge; we gave it our all,” Miller said in the memo. “Now, it‘s time to come home.”

— With assistance by Mario Parker

(Updates with more lawmaker reaction starting in 15th paragraph)

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To: ggersh who wrote (165168)11/17/2020 8:30:35 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218664
 
Looks like neo people do not have the balls they hint at having

nytimes.com

Trump Sought Options for Attacking Iran to Stop Its Growing Nuclear Program

The president was dissuaded from moving ahead with a strike by advisers who warned that it could escalate into a broader conflict in his last weeks in office.

By Eric Schmitt, Maggie Haberman, David E. Sanger, Helene Cooper and Lara Jakes

Nov. 16, 2020


Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned President Trump against a strike on Iran and described the potential risks of military escalation.Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — President Trump asked senior advisers in an Oval Office meeting on Thursday whether he had options to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks. The meeting occurred a day after international inspectors reported a significant increase in the country’s stockpile of nuclear material, four current and former U.S. officials said on Monday.

A range of senior advisers dissuaded the president from moving ahead with a military strike. The advisers — including Vice President Mike Pence; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; Christopher C. Miller, the acting defense secretary; and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — warned that a strike against Iran’s facilities could easily escalate into a broader conflict in the last weeks of Mr. Trump’s presidency.

Any strike — whether by missile or cyber — would almost certainly be focused on Natanz, where the International Atomic Energy Agency reported on Wednesday that Iran’s uranium stockpile was now 12 times larger than permitted under the nuclear accord that Mr. Trump abandoned in 2018. The agency also noted that Iran had not allowed it access to another suspected site where there was evidence of past nuclear activity.

Mr. Trump asked his top national security aides what options were available and how to respond, officials said.

After Mr. Pompeo and General Milley described the potential risks of military escalation, officials left the meeting believing a missile attack inside Iran was off the table, according to administration officials with knowledge of the meeting.

Mr. Trump might still be looking at ways to strike Iranian assets and allies, including militias in Iraq, officials said. A smaller group of national security aides had met late Wednesday to discuss Iran, the day before the meeting with the president.

White House officials did not respond to requests for comment.

The episode underscored how Mr. Trump still faces an array of global threats in his final weeks in office. A strike on Iran may not play well to his base, which is largely opposed to a deeper American conflict in the Middle East, but it could poison relations with Tehran so that it would be much harder for President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear accord, as he has promised to do.

Since Mr. Trump dismissed Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and other top Pentagon aides last week, Defense Department and other national security officials have privately expressed worries that the president might initiate operations, whether overt or secret, against Iran or other adversaries at the end of his term.

The events of the past few days are not the first time that Iran policy has emerged in the final days of a departing administration. During the last days of the Bush administration in 2008, Israeli officials, concerned that the incoming Obama administration would seek to block it from striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, sought bunker-busting bombs, bombers and intelligence assistance from the United States for an Israeli-led strike.

Vice President Dick Cheney later wrote in his memoir that he supported the idea. President George W. Bush did not, but the result was a far closer collaboration with Israel on a cyberstrike against the Natanz facility, which took out about 1,000 of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges .

Nicholas Kristof: A behind-the-scenes look at Nicholas Kristof’s gritty journalism, as he travels around the world.

Ever since, the Pentagon has revised its strike plans multiple times. It now has traditional military as well as cyberoptions, and some that combine the two. Some involve direct action by Israel.


A satellite image of the Natanz facility, where the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran’s uranium stockpile was now 12 times larger than permitted under the nuclear accord that Mr. Trump abandoned in 2018.Maxar Technologies/Reuters

The report from the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that Iran now had a stockpile of more than 2,442 kilograms, or over 5,385 pounds, of low-enriched uranium. That is enough to produce about two nuclear weapons, according to an analysis of the report by the Institute for Science and International Security. But it would require several months of additional processing to enrich the uranium to bomb-grade material, meaning that Iran would not be close to a bomb until late spring at the earliest — well after Mr. Trump would have left office.

While the amount is concerning, it is far below the amount of fuel Iran possessed before President Barack Obama reached a nuclear accord with Tehran in July 2015. Late that year, under the terms of the accord, Iran shipped about 97 percent of its fuel stockpile to Russia — about 25,000 pounds — leaving it with less than it would need to build a single weapon.

The Iranians stuck to those limits even after Mr. Trump scrapped U.S. participation in the Iran accord in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. The Iranians began to slowly edge out of those limits last year, declaring that if Mr. Trump felt free to violate its terms, they would not continue to abide by them.

But the Iranians have hardly raced to produce new material: Their advances have been slow and steady, and they have denied seeking to build a weapon — though evidence stolen from the country several years ago by Israel made clear that was the plan before 2003.

Mr. Trump has argued since the 2016 campaign that Iran was hiding some of its actions and cheating on its commitments; the inspectors’ report last week gave him the first partial evidence to support that view. The report criticized Iran for not answering a series of questions about a warehouse in Tehran where inspectors found uranium particles, leading to suspicion that it had once been some kind of nuclear-processing facility. The report said Iran’s answers were “not technically credible.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency has previously complained that inspectors have been barred from fully reviewing some suspected sites.

It is not just the U.S. military that is looking at options. Mr. Pompeo, officials said, is closely watching events unfolding on the ground in Iraq for any hint of aggression from Iran or its proxy militias against American diplomats or troops stationed there.

Mr. Pompeo already drew up plans to close the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad over concerns of potential threats, although in recent days he appeared willing to leave that decision to the next administration. Mortar and rocket attacks against the embassy have waned over the past several weeks, and the task to shutter the largest American diplomatic mission in the world could take months to complete.

But officials said that could change if any Americans are killed before Inauguration Day.

Officials are especially nervous about the Jan. 3 anniversary of the U.S. strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and the Iraqi leader of an Iranian-backed militia — deaths that Iranian leaders regularly insist they have not yet avenged.

Mr. Pompeo, who has been the most strident proponent among Mr. Trump’s advisers of hobbling Iran while the administration still can, has more recently made clear that the death of an American was a red line that could provoke a military response.

That would also increase tensions between Washington and Baghdad. Diplomats said Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi of Iraq would almost certainly object to the killing of Iraqis — even Iranian-backed militiamen — on Iraqi soil by U.S. forces who already face demands to leave.