To: Dan Ross who wrote (7787 ) 1/30/1998 7:08:00 PM From: Clarksterh Respond to of 152472
OK, I'm confused. Why is everyone in a panic over the Anadigics fiasco? Having looked at their statement, given below, only a little of it looks bad for Qualcomm, and even that isn't horrendous news. In fact some of it looks good. "We believe the lower demand is attributable to several factors including, increased competition, a shift in demand to lower cost phones not using ANADIGICS' products, customer delays in the ramp-up of new generation dual-band phones using our new products and, in part, to effects of the Asian financial crisis on the wireless market." 1) Increased competition Since Anadigics is a major supplier to Ericsson, QPE, and Nokia (as of 1996 10K 16%, 16%, 12% respectively), increased competition among these vendors would have little impact on Anadigics. Therefore this must be a reference to competition at the component level. This is actually good for Qualcomm. 2) a shift in demand to lower cost phones not using ANADIGICS' products Very bad for Anadigics, but not necessarily bad for Qualcomm. If they sell twice as many phones at 2/3 of the price it is actually good for Qualcomm and a disaster for Anadigics. 3) customer delays in the ramp-up of new generation dual-band phones using our new products Ok, this might be a bad sign for Qualcomm, but I'm sure Ericsson and Nokia et al are also working on a 'new generation of dual band phones'. So, there is a good chance that it is no impact to Qualcomm at all. And even if it is an indication that Qualcomm is slow to produce the next generation, I don't see this as a catastrophy. They can still sell the current generation which is more than Motorola can say. 4) effects of the Asian financial crisis on the wireless market They saved the worst (for Qualcomm) for last. However, the very fact that they listed this last indicates that it is the smallest of their problems. If they had listed it as the primary reason for their shortfall I would be concerned, but they did not. All in all, I don't see what the fuss is about. Just for kicks, here is a list of some of the things they could have said which would have caused me to run around like a headless chicken: 1) The demand for wireless communications products has fallen off the face of the earth. No one wants the damned things anymore, so we expect all of our customers to go broke tommorrow. 2) The microwave radiation associated with PCS phones has been linked to sterility and cancer, so we expect demand to be down until the manufacturers can ramp up production of lead lined belt pouches and helmets. 3) The global telecommunications committee has decided that driving while talking is a dangerous distraction so all member countries have signed a moritorium on any form of talking in a car. However none of these happened, so I can't get particularly worked up. Clark