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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (13729)	1/30/1998 6:39:00 PM
From: TideGlider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

TI2: I agree and the bulk of the lower Q is actually R&D and will be announced that way when the next Q-1 is read. 22 cents with a R&D charge (for that quarter only) resulting in a 16 to 17 cent EPS. TG

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (13729)	1/30/1998 7:08:00 PM
From: Paul Dieterich	Respond to of 25960

My guess is that $.09 to .14 is the company's worst case scenario. Korean companies, for instance, want to get the new steppers into their fabs, but in many cases are not getting the letters of credit to buy them. But this is clearly a battle that is not yet lost. Witness ASMLF in talks with Korean chip companies, trying to arrange other terms. Also, while the Korean debt picture is obviously teetering, there are signs of improvement, notably in terms of potential foreign relief/investment: _________________________________________________________ Rescheduling of Debt Shifts Focus To Korea's Domestic Obligations January 30, 1998 By NAMJU CHO Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL SEOUL, South Korea -- The debt-rescheduling accord South Korea reached late Wednesday with its international creditors may give South Korean banks incentive to lend again, but it doesn't signal the end of a liquidity squeeze just yet. Rather, bankers and analysts warned, it simply shifts attention to the next looming crisis: how South Korea's companies will be able to meet crushing domestic debt burdens. Foreign debt represents only the equivalent of 40% of this industrialized country's annual economic output, while domestic debt represents the equivalent of 180% of annual output. In a sign of how pressed for cash the country remains, South Korea continues dramatic eye-catching nationwide frugality campaigns --including one calling on South Koreans to donate blood for export, and another in which local television stations refused to pay hefty broadcasting rights to air overseas soccer games. The South Korean liquidity crisis "is a domestic problem" now, said a currency trader at Shinhan Bank, a local commercial bank. Markets here were closed Thursday for a holiday. The South Korea composite index jumped 7.7% Friday in response to the news. The won followed suit -- the dollar closed at 1,525 won Friday, compared with 1,688 won on Monday. Local banks' heavy exposure to troubled South Korean companies that may be unable to meet their obligations could crimp banks' ability to lend to top-tier companies. "Snowballing defaults on domestic debt are likely to crush the banking system," Stephen Marvin, head of research at Ssangyong Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul, wrote in a recent report. Mr. Marvin estimated total domestic corporate debt at about $310 billion, at a current exchange rate for the local currency of about 1,700 won to the dollar. With domestic interest rates having nearly doubled during a worsening financial crisis over the past four months, Mr. Marvin estimates at least 20% of the outstanding total, or about $60 billion, is already nonperforming. The problem, he warned, could "destroy the banks," forcing some to close. He worried that corporations will be increasingly unable to pay off their debt. To raise capital, companies are trying to issue stock, sell assets or increase operating cash flow, according to Mr. Marvin. But most companies can't issue stock given sluggish demand for equities, or sell real estate and buildings because so many other companies are trying to sell assets. Also, banks and corporations won't be able to get fresh loans until credit-rating agencies upgrade their views from current rock-bottom, junk levels. The prospect of better ratings, however, has improved because of the international accord sealed Wednesday in New York. Some agencies had forecast raising ratings once a deal was struck. Bankers and analysts here generally welcomed the move by foreign bankers to convert $24 billion in short-term debt into debt maturing in one to three years. They said it could widen near-term support for a recent rise in local share prices and boost the won against the dollar, lifting popular sentiment here. But some analysts are concerned that the government may stall in its reform program, thinking the worst is over. With a sense of urgency gone, labor reforms and corporate restructuring may come to a halt. Any slowdown in reform could discourage foreign investment. In order to alleviate the liquidity squeeze, though, analysts and traders say attracting foreign money is critical. That may prove especially necessary for banks burdened with bad loans. Foreigners were recently allowed to buy local commercial banks' nonperforming loans, for instance. "The only ones with the money to buy local assets are foreigners," one analyst said.

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (13729)	1/30/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Thanks for your comprehensive view re booking and orders. I am not so sure about any double booking. Possible. What I heard and read is an inventory-adjustment process that influences Q1 shipment. Cymi has sold 450 (or 460?) lasers in 97 and >100 before 97. There was only one installed by Sept 31, and 82 installed by Dec. 31. So there must be > 500 lasers still in the pipeline, sold but not installed. Q1_98 installation is expected only 120~130 (equal to Q1 shipments according to cc). I don't know how much inventory is supposed to be in the pipeline and what is the resonable worldwide laser inventory for all companies combined. I have definitely seen Cymi's own inventory jumped to a worth of equivalent to 100 lasers. So Q1 slow down is definitely real. The question is Q2 and beyond.