To: Paul V. who wrote (15178 ) 1/30/1998 9:58:00 PM From: akidron Respond to
These threads are wierd. Months of xtc, passion and pain, and now when the stock is really poised to motor - nothing. The golden rule of investing is that it is when you feel the most dispirited that there is the greatest opportunity, because you will act ahead of the crowd. Lets look at future realistically. Amat is by all accounts gaining share, and other semis have reported OK. S. Korea will mend fast because they are tightening belts the tightest. Europe is booming. Intel has to spend because it has to keep its cost advantage over competition to keep on earning at extraordinary margins... this is the intel point that is being missed. they are not spending to retain leadership but to maintian extraordinary profit margins. The pres. is going to survive, which means that Rubin will continue to run the economy like a well run private sector firm, and AMAT is the year 2000 stock. Feb 35 calls are a steal. Jan 2000 leaps are a steal. and the stock is a steal. You can worry about DRAM prices if you want, but its a waste of energy, because the manu's are going to spend themselves to higher and higher levels of productivity. Also Fabs are the strategic investments of the digital age as steel mills were of the previous age. They are a strategic consideration, look for russia china and the rest to start spending govenment money to establish them. Finally forget ML... if you listen to semi conf calls, they are always behind the cue ball... We have been offered a tremendous discount on the future... we will only regret it if we don't jump in at these prices. Tito, Kumer, BB, GM, DD, Terry Davis, Paul V, I appreciate your imput, and thank you all for the time you've taken....
