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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ggersh who wrote (165681)12/2/2020 7:29:43 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 219789
 
one can sense where the msm wants to go, for material to fill the minutes going forward, per reality tv

edition.cnn.com

Can Trump pre-pardon his children?

(CNN) — Beg your pardon?

It's something you ask of somebody else for something you've already done. And that, more or less, is how it's been viewed in the Constitution.

But each day brings new reporting about how President Donald Trump might creatively stretch and bend his expansive pardon power not just to protect himself but also to shield his children and his closest associates from future legal problems -- all moves that would test the spirit of the power and legal precedent.

Trump has yet to acknowledge his electoral defeat, but he's clearly eyeing the door. We've heard about his interest in using the pardon power on himself, a prophylactic application that is not specifically verboten but would betray the legal principle of standing in judgment of oneself. CNN's Jim Acosta reported Wednesday that the public should expect a "flurry" of pardons before Trump leaves office -- and that some of his advisers believe that it would be perfectly fine for Trump to pardon his family members and other associates preemptively, even though they haven't been charged with any crimes.

We also learned this week that the Department of Justice is investigating a potential presidential pardon bribery scheme, although details are few, and no charges have been leveled. CNN has also reported on Trump's consideration of pardoning:

Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, who worked for him on his campaigns and in the White House. Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, who helped with his campaigns and ran his business and his now-defunct charity. Rudy Giuliani, who sought dirt on Joe Biden from foreign governments and has been Trump's lawyer.
Trump's already pardoned his former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty twice to lying to the FBI but had not yet been sentenced, for any and all crimes pertaining to the special counsel investigation.

Related: Pardons loom for allies, children and self
What the possible self-pardon, the specter of family pardons and the Flynn pardon all share is that they preempt future prosecution.

Why do we have pardons?

Frank Bowman, a constitutional expert at the University of Missouri School of Law, has written a forthcoming study, "Presidential Pardons and the Problem of Impunity," and traces the history of the pardon power back to the British.

As he did with an earlier book on impeachment, Bowman draws distinctions between the principle adopted in the US for a presidential pardon and that of royal pardons employed by British kings.
He tells in particular of Charles II, who as King after the Restoration in the 1660s was hard up for cash and having trouble getting money from Parliament. On behalf of the King, the Earl of Danby offered to keep the British out of France's war with the Dutch in exchange for cash payments to the King. (Talk about a quid pro quo: We'll stay out of your war. Just pay our King. He might also convert the country to Catholicism.)

Parliament impeached Danby. Charles pardoned him. It was controversial. Years later, Parliament found a way to strike impeachment from the pardon power when William and Mary took over the throne. Today, that same caveat to pardon power is found in the US Constitution. But aside from that, the framers gave the President vast authority.

Precedents for pardons

Up to now, the power of the pardon has been used very sparingly. The largest pardons were President Andrew Johnson's pardon of ex-Confederates and President Jimmy Carter's pardon of draft dodgers after Vietnam.

The most expansive was President Gerald Ford's blanket pardon of his predecessor Richard Nixon. Issued a month after Nixon's resignation, the idea was the country should move on.
Bowman notes a Supreme Court case, Ex parte Garland, involving ex-Confederates in public positions. The court referenced the nearly unlimited power to pardon: "It extends to every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken, or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment."

That phrasing -- "at any time after its commission" -- from 1866, would suggest Trump could pardon people for things they've done that have not yet been prosecuted, as Ford did for Nixon, but not for crimes that haven't yet been committed. So is it possible new crimes could come to public light? Sure. Would a Trump pardon work to stop the prosecution of them? That's less clear.

Why would Trump need to pardon?

The fact that the preemptive pardon presumes guilt has been identified as one flaw of the idea, although Trump has so convinced himself and his followers that the "deep state" has been rigging elections and subverting his presidency that he could easily self-justify that any and all charges brought against him or those closest to him would be a hoax.

In mid-November, Biden suggested he'd like to move on from the Trump era and look forward. Moderate Republicans like former Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania have argued that Trump's already paid a political price and "impeachment will forever be a stain on Donald Trump's record, reputation and legacy. And it will hurt."
Bowman agreed that a Biden administration might be hesitant to go after Trump.

"A Biden DOJ is going to be very cautious about indicting a former president, even Trump. As they should be," Bowman said. "Leaving aside the bad precedent it could create for a cycle of legal retribution after elections, it would be a huge distraction, and convicting a guy who got 70 million votes would be very tough, regardless of the strength of the evidence. And the last thing you want is an indictment and acquittal."

It's important, however, to remember that presidential pardons do no good in civil proceedings and state courts, according to Bowman. They also can't stop Congress, and perhaps more likely than a criminal investigation would be congressional investigations led by House Democrats.

Most of the President's current legal problems are at the state level in New York, where the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus Vance, is investigating Trump's finances, his tax avoidance, his charity and his involvement in hush money payments to women who have alleged affairs with him. But we also don't know the full extent of Trump's actions, or of his children's or Giuliani's activities.



To: ggersh who wrote (165681)12/4/2020 12:44:08 AM
From: sense  Respond to of 219789
 
The Exchange Stabilization Fund is a "legit" cash holding authorized by law... so there's not an obvious operational problem with the growth in the scale of that holding... whether or not you agree with its purpose or the way its managed... being a separate set of issues. But, the couple hundred billion in play there... still just chump change.

Took me a few minutes to find it, since it was a few days back... but here's the link discussing the issue I was mentioning in my prior posting. Note, it does a bit of a bait and switch by mixing and matching a bit too much between a broad focus on the issue related to "global central bank" issuance... and the somewhat more focused look at the "balancing act" between the Treasury and Fed... but, its the Treasury and the Fed that are the real issue, as the ECB is essentially "out of ammo"... while "Europe" is looking more and more like a bad idea whose time has come and gone already...

That leaves it up to China and the U.S. to somehow prevent a global deflationary implosion occurring... while somehow also avoiding driving the pace of currency growth into an overly hot result that forces a massive ramp up in inflation... and/or an even bigger asset bubble than the one we're in now...

Thus far, the only elements apparent as reasons for optimism in that realization... are ones suggesting the contest in trade is about to ramp up to another level... putting global deflationary forces on path to expand in a similarly dangerous way... but, this article ignores those elements in the larger context to focus on the $.

Anyway... the link:

zerohedge.com

What it says... is that there's a pretty significant and essentially hardwired ramp in liquidity injection slated to occur in 2021. Again, it isn't a question about whether or not its a good idea... its just... there... and its going to happen.

Where it leads might be "hinted at" by articles like this one:

The Government Has Printed 40 Cents For Every Dollar That Existed In March
zerohedge.com

Figuring out what the actual balances are between the drivers of inflation vs inflation is made more complex... by the realization that Fed policy has been vastly over-balanced on the side of deflation for a long time... which has knock on impacts in choking off productive paths for liquidity over time... so you can't just suddenly ramp up into easier money and expect to see it flow into only productive uses ?

Layer into all of that timing issues in "fixing" the virus related problems... ?

That's still pretty unlikely to happen before mid-summer... IMO...

So, maybe correlate the timing issues in the money flows with the timing issues constraining real economic rebounds... and then figure how the coming implosion in global trade integrates with the other changes ?

For now, the markets seem in denial about the inflation risks... even as rates are ramping up, and the price of oil is holding steady even in spite of OPEC+ backsliding on production constraints...

The "globalized QE" policy shift has vastly reduced the risks to global banking sector... but at the cost of driving the dollar decline, which is pretty much the only thing that's keeping the wheels coming off in the rest of the global market, now...

After years of overly tolerant policy relative to others greater lack of restraint, the strong dollar policy being relaxed a bit now to keep others afloat a bit longer... is still not capable of undoing the aggregate in error by itself... but, as policy shifts begin to restrict the dollar flows again... the impacts of those policy shifts are likely to narrow in focus...

That introduces a couple of other wrinkles in the timing that I haven't sorted out yet...

But, the simple awareness that inflation risks are accelerating big time right now... might be enough to keep you ahead of the many in the market who don't see it coming, yet ?

Market focus on the conflicting awareness issues, for now, generating a muddle...

Airlines are going broke operating at 30% capacity while forward dated bookings are contracting again... but Boeing is selling lots of airplanes again because the now "fixed" 737 is so much more fuel efficient ? The Panama Canal is said to be operating flat out at max capacity because of the furious pace in shipping... but large numbers of fairly new (cruise liner - passenger) ships are being sent to India to be cut up for salvage as that's a cheaper option for the operators than paying to maintain them ?

Generational scale opportunities may abound, soon... but the risks aren't exactly insignificant...

Preservation of capital in "safe bets' still a better idea than swinging for the fences on risky plays... for now ?

But, while it does still look like there will be some interesting buying opportunities ahead "soon"... the market gurus crystal balls appear to be fogging up at a rapid rate...

Thus far "don't fight the Fed" has been mostly right... other than for a few days in March.

But, valuation metrics now... scale beyond those of 1929 ?

Harder to see the black swans coming, now, given all the dark clouds obstructing our view... ?