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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2184)	1/30/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: Kurthend	Respond to of 3029

Just remember the source of this information (an idiot:), whose has limited knowledge of the DD industry and has no knowledge of of the technical world in general. INVX started the bad news back in May 97 with an earnings warning for their 4th qtr ending Sep 30, 97. The price was in the 40s for a short period of time. The other companies in the dd industry later came out with similar warnings (Summer of 97). The dd industry in general has been "battered" by wall street since November (Some may say since the summer of 97). In the last week earnings of the various dd companies have been neutral to negative. Many of the companies have posted negative earnings (APM, RDRT, etc). The price of the dd stocks have not dropped in the last week as compared to when warnings about earnings came out in mid to late 97. It appears as though the price of dd stocks have already been discounted in terms of current earnings. It also appears from this amateur investor that the experts on wall street have figured the dd industry can only get better from this point forward. The price of the various stocks seem to have stabilized. Look at the average PE as compared to the 5 year average. Unfortunately all of my money is in INVX and I have no further "assets" to dump in INVX or other DD companies such as SEG, QNTM, etc. The current dd down cycle is in the second qtr. If my memory serves me correctly the average dd down cycle is approximately 2-3 qtrs. Get in before the big boys from wall street figure out what is going on. Heck, if SEG, WDC, QNTM go under who will make the disk drives? Per Lynch, buy the strongest companies in the weakest industry. As you can see this is a very non-technical message and based only on one man's opinion. Have a good weekend, Kurt

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2184)	1/31/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: Richard H.	Respond to of 3029

Innovex will move with the sector. I guess I have to be a closet SEG fan! Good luck to all.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2184)	1/31/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: Kurthend	Respond to of 3029

Joel, Doug, & Mark, Picked this up today on the Fool. fnews.yahoo.com Jan 30, 1998 FOOL PLATE SPECIAL An Investment Opinion by Dale Wettlaufer A Western Digital Synopsis Disk drive company Western Digital Corp. (NYSE:WDC - news) gained $1 5/8 to $18 7/8 after reporting Q2 EPS (before restructuring charges) of $0.03, down from $0.67 in the first quarter and $0.68 (adjusting for a 2-1 split in June 1997) in the second quarter fiscal 1997. Despite the happy-happy, joy-joy reports of Western Digital beating estimates, the company's management was very sober in their assessment of the quarter and coming quarters during this morning's conference call. That's not to say they were glum or unenthusiastic, but they've been through a number of industry cycles and were as realistic about their outlook as they have been in upcycles. Contrary to the somewhat laughable assertions of those jumping on the class action lawsuit bandwagon, Western Digital's management has never blown smoke on their conference calls to pump up expectations. So, without opining as to the future of the disk drive industry, we present a short synopsis of important points from the conference call. Bulleted points are directly from the conference call, the other data are the Fool's and are our responsibility. -- Units sold equaled 5.8 million vs. Street expectations of 7.5 million units. Units sold last quarter equaled 6.3 million. Average selling price was $167.17 per drive vs. $173.04 last quarter. Inventory turned 14 times on an annualized basis. Gross margin was 9%, down from 14.8% last quarter (Q1). That doesn't include charges for asset write-downs of inventories and restructuring charges, which totalled approximately $148 million. Much of that charge came through the cost of goods sold line. Magnetoresistive (MR) head-equipped drives should get to 80% of units shipped by the June quarter. MR drives accounted for 20% of units in Q2 and should reach 40% in Q3. -- It is "...too early to declare the bottom of the cycle. We have seen constructive steps taken by the major industry players in terms of production cutbacks and restructuring programs, all of which will in the long term hasten the industry's recovery." -- Channel inventory is 8 weeks, down "somewhat" since the end of December. Historically, the industry likes to see 4-5 weeks in the channel. Channel sell-through ramped steadily through the quarter. -- Inventory at suppliers and in the channel is still a problem. Finished goods (number of drives) inventory at the company equaled 2.4 weeks. Kathy Braun, President and Chief Operating Officer of the Personal Storage Division, commented that cycles in the industry last one to three quarters. Last quarter cannot be said to be the last quarter of this downcycle, and it's hard to forecast results given the possibility of aggressive pricing in quarter. -- Key areas in return to profitability include the rapid transition to MR head products and continuing the ramp of the company's enterprise storage business (drives for servers and RAID mass storage systems). More than 10% of revenues in the December quarter came from the enterprise unit, a first for the company. This unit is operating within expectations. -- Customers are "asking for a slower roll to the bleeding edge" of capacity per drive. That's an effect of the drive to sub-$1,000 PCs. -- Average selling price (ASP) outlook is flat to down slightly in the coming quarter. -- Q3 units sold to come down sequentially and then rise slightly in Q4.