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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (65589)	12/5/2020 9:51:20 AM
From: petal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78791

Hi mindmeld, welcome to the thread! Well I agree mostly. Am holding a bit of gold as well as silver, but I'm not too sure about that in the longer term... Have been reading Piketty's books and looking on some of his (and others) research. Some of the stats are fascinating: For example, the gold price was almost exactly the same between 1700 and 1914 (around 19 bucks). (http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/xls/RawDataFiles/GoldPrices17922012.pdf) Then WWI broke out, everyone started printed money, fiat currencies, etc. etc. etc. And look what crazy stuff it started doing then! (https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart) Can't help but feeling it has quite a "long way down" as they say, should something drastic happen in the economy. Seems that no one really knows the characteristics of gold either: is it an "inflation hedge", or a "deflation bet"? Seems to me that what you want to hold in inflations, is assets. Especially stocks. In deflation, cash in one form or another. (Does gold work as "cash" does? Well, if the fiats should really crash, it should become the only form of trusted money. Possibly crypto, but that feels too new to be truly trusted in a crisis, in the same way that gold seems too old (can't really see us all trading with gold coins again...)) Deflation start to seem more and more likely – even, in the long term, unavoidable – to me, and then gold is probably good. Will definitely hold at least 5 % precious metals for now anyways. 10 % seems about right to me.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (65589)	12/5/2020 10:21:53 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78791

just to play devils advocate, if you think that inflation is returning would it not make sense to buy low cost commodity producers rather than gold? or reits for that matter.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (65589)	12/5/2020 10:38:37 AM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By petal Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78791

I was looking at starting a short for the first time in many years to see how my Street Smart Edge platform does the trade. I found out at least for my test stock they charge me to borrow the stock to short. I suspect it is specific to the stock I want to short and my plan was to hold that short (and others) for 6 months or until I thought it was again selling at a fair value price. Note, this stock is one I have owned since it IPO'ed in late 2018, never booked a profit, revenues were flat but the company had intriguing technology in the Fuel Cell business. I sold my last 10 shares Friday at $28/share. Those had a cost bases of $5.65/share The stock IPO'd 7/23/2018 at $22.60/share traded at a high of $38/share, reached a low 10/21/2019 at $2.50/share and closed at $28/share Friday on better than avg weekly vol. EPS estimates still show losses out to as far as they estimate (12/2021) and their technology is 1st generation when others have 2nd generation more efficient fuel cells. (Note: This is just one case from many where I have followed the company, believe I know fair value and am a seller of the stock. Now was thinking of starting a short position.) Long story short is they wanted to charge me a daily rate of $0.01 for my 50 share test which works out to 0.25% (annualized) to borrow the stock (Hard to borrow on Schwab's list). Not too bad but I need to check the rates on other short candidates. I wonder, if it might be a good time to explore building a small basket of short candidate stocks that would also act as a hedge for the portfolio. Maybe just buy a small position in a short ETF (not sure I want anything leveraged) but those typically have a large 'decay' rate so not good to hold for six months. Same w/ Put options. Extreme Markets always provide a good opportunity for those that are patient (reversion the the 'mean' strategy). Especially when there is sector rotation and you can focus on the value candidates in those sectors. I thought that when studying and scanning value plays, could have twice the opportunity to build a few short positions on those candidate stocks that were hugely overvalued. EKS