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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (65597)	12/5/2020 2:56:29 PM
From: FIFO_kid2	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78816

I agree the reason why crypto has moved higher is the risk of the reset dethroning the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The major draw to bitcoin is it an anonymous exchange on the ledger and its hashrate continues to fall until it is fully mined to eventually create a fixed coin float (no dilution). Bitcoin does use too much energy and the transactions are relatively slow. Other blockchain technologies also could dethrone it. I saw the light in crypto when India confiscated its high denomination cash in late 2016. Before that I thought it was similar to a virtual reality game and eventually made an ethereum investment after about 2 months of research as to what would be the best dealer to select for purchasing it (at the time it was Coinbase). Another thing to be wary of is Coinbase is now in the hands of price manipulator Goldman Sachs so the cowboys days of crypto are over. Once crypto went Wall street I sold my position until late October of 2020 I put 1/2 of my cash position into GBTC into my Roth based upon this reset uncertainty. The problem with a fiat based crypto is it likely will be always created, let big brother know every detail of your life and they will turn off your digits to "unperson" you making you virtually not functional in society if you don't obey and your social credit score is not up to their standards. As for commodities I would say that is where I have the most technical knowledge and always directly pick the producing companies among the mine field of liars in the industry. I rarely pick companies in mining for instance before the PFS stage and usually wait for an adverse event to pick the best junior companies. For oil and gas I look for firms that have virtually no long term depletion in their field(s) exhibit free cash flow under most conditions and the last 2 price cycles waited to buy when the commodity price was off 75% from the cycle high which has always historically produced profits. With respect for gold I think it is an investment hedge in a disorderly society but not a fan of owning much of the physical metal for the same reasons Warren Buffett's pet rock/ doesn't generate a return argument but if long rates go negative I can see the attraction. Sector ETFs are good to consider especially when you don't have the technical expertise of the sector i.e. I know in genomics I don't know what CRSPR firm has a technological edge but I know it will likely be a revolutionary technology for genetics.

To: E_K_S who wrote (65597)	12/6/2020 4:13:34 PM
From: RetiredNow	2 Recommendations Recommended By Area51 E_K_S Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78816

We sure do live in interesting times. My own view on bitcoin is that I'm not convinced yet, but I watch it. There is a concerted CB push to create CBDCs and if they do that then bitcoin is going to have some serious competition. However, CBDCs are not competition for gold. Gold will retain its value and continue to be the store of value of last resort for everyone, including CBs. Recently, gold was declared a Tier 1 reserve asset. In addition, ISO 20022 is coming which will pave the way for CBDCs. So those two things alone make me cautious on bitcoin. I want to like it and own it, but I'm far more comfortable with gold, given its 5,000 history. One thing is for sure, currencies of all types are entering a period of massive competition and the USD is not at all certain to come out of it a winner, especially considering that pretty much every American has gone nuts and thinks, despite all of recorded monetary history telling us otherwise, that MMT, UBI, QE, and endless deficits are great ideas. That guarantees the destruction of the USD, which will open the door to all manner of other currencies. The days of USD hegemony and reserve currency status sure do look like they have reached the beginning of the end.