Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (65602)	12/6/2020 10:38:05 AM
From: petal	1 Recommendation Recommended By sjemmeri Respond to of 78802

Paul Senior, Thanks for expressing your differing opinion, and changing and correcting mine. I should rephrase that sentence to "almost a requisite". I should also make clear that I meant that kind of tongue-in-cheek too (I exaggerate for effect...) I've found the best shorting opportunities with specific companies occur AFTER everyone believes it's a crisis. The stock drops, but not far enough, and that still leaves room for further shorting. I think that this is true: most contrarian shorters will be too early. Even in the case of Burry's short: remember, he thought that he had to be quick about it, or everyone else would catch on, but he was way early, and had to take losses for quite a long time. Most people won't really have confidence in calling the bubble until it's actually bursting or until it already has burst – therefore, you have time. Hence: A safer bet, imo, than shorting something at what seems to be a peak, but may not be. That may be true for general market shorts, too (unless their function in your portfolio is that of a hedge), but as you said, even more so for company-specific shorts. Again, thanks for pointing out the holes in my reasoning. It's just so counter-intuitive for a contrarian to wait until everyone else sees what you see (in my mind, it's the opposite of traditional value investing), but I shall have to try to learn! Patience before you short, not patience for the short to become 'in the money'.