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Strategies & Market Trends : Taking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (4454)	12/6/2020 1:41:48 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6354

Well if Wisconsin has the crop to buffer total production loss/demand increase, nationally and/or globally, then it's a much smaller world than I thought. In less tenuous times, higher prices for farmers is a good thing. But this is one of those times when the bigger picture means higher prices for consumers as they are currently situated will be the more important factor. Here's the data from the USDA: OILSEEDS: The U.S. soybean outlook for 2020/21 is for lower production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 98 million on lower yields. Lower yields are reported for several major producing states, including Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and Nebraska. With reduced production, soybean ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, down 100 million from last month. If realized, soybean ending stocks would be at the lowest level in the past seven years. Soybean and product prices for 2020/21 are all higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $10.40 per bushel, up 60 cents. The soybean meal price is forecast at $355.00 per short ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price is forecast at 34.5 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month. usda.gov Brazil is playing games with its forecasts. Record yield in store for their late started growing season according to their govt. Recent rainfall was below normal but adequate in central and northern Brazil last week. Southern areas received less than normal. Most places from Mato Grosso south through Rio Grande do Sul recorded less than 25 millimeters (about 1 inch). Temperatures were hot as well, with values routinely hitting the middle to upper 30s Celsius (middle to upper 90s Fahrenheit). Evaporative losses have been quite large, putting stress on developing corn and soybeans that have already been delayed this year. Throw on additional dryness this week with very little to no showers, and the losses continue to mount. Central and northern areas are also seeing diminishing showers through the end of November and may see stress in areas that are completely missed. dtnpf.com La Nina is associated with drought there.