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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (34516)1/31/1998 7:28:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58727
 
INDEX UPDATE
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For those trading/following the XAL DJX PUT trades, overall things look good but be nimble since this downturn should be minimal and may only last 1-2 more days.

The XAL actually was positive in the early morning probably due to the good news AMR received, but shortly thereafter started to weaken and throught the day weakened in stages. It was the weakest index in the market yesterday, even in light of the AMR news and the CRUDE going down. The charts will show clearly that it performed the TECHNICAL DELAYED RISE(DOUBLE TOP). The bias is still to the downside. The FEB 700 PUTS are now 19 1/8 - 19 7/8.

The DJX - won't make alot of money, but wont lose alot either. The DOW needs to go down another 100 points and the DJX FEB 81's should be around 3+.

Technically, I am a bit nervous on how far the market will drop. As all have heard me say, I am going after every ripple. In light of my nervousness, I will enter calls forming a strangle on Monday if the market is still down, if not I will exit very quickly. The only concern with doing strangles is that the market will remain flat, causing time-value deterioation; however the current market is showing strong volitility now.

For now, unless there is bad news to intensify the pullback, I feel that there is only maximum 2 days left for for this short-term downtrend. At this time feel the maximum downside potential is 100-150 DOW points. The main reason for the weakness in this pull-back is the huge strength of the NAZ.

I am not looking to have huge profits on these trades but I am going after every ripple, and by playing strangles such strategy could help.

Please don't look to score big on this one - CHICKEN TRADE

Seeya