Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (9282)	1/30/1998 11:27:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Mang thanks for pointing this article out. Though I strongly agree with them that the rise in DRAM prices is not the start of a new cycle, and I do agree with them about the overcapacity issue (in certain sectors only would be my caveat), I just do not fully agree with them about weakening demand for semiconductors. Unit growth is up all over the place. Though it might be slowing temporarily I think all signs point to increasing unit demand for the year. However if there is slowdown in the world economies or some such calamity and unit demand for semiconductors falls we are all dead. No 2 ways about it. IF unit demand goes down LSI is going to $17 or less, MU will go lower than 20, VLSI will go to 15 etc etc... Interestingly I noticed that semi-equip test equip BTB is falling and though still above 1.0 I think at one point recently it was at 1.18. It's now 1.03 I think. Not sure if there's a flat-out 100% correlation but I would guess that unit demand and testing in semi-equips go hand in hand. (There's also this issue that the more complex chips need to have even more testing. So the reduction in testing while the chips are getting more complex may not be a good sign at all. Unless it's temporary for some reason or the other - just don't know enough to even hazard a guess.) So maybe the rapid reduction in test semi-equip BTB might foretell a slowdown in unit demand. Which would bring us back to the "we are all sheesh-kabab" scenario. Which would not be any fun whatsoever. However, as of right now, it seems difficult to see this happening. Heck the analog guys are still strong and even LSI, aka the coal-miner's canary, is recovering. Or am I totally missing something? Any comments? Anyway I'm still waiting for the opportune time to jump back in.

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (9282)	1/31/1998 12:50:00 AM
From: SMALL FRY	Respond to of 25814

Mang, Thanks for the news update. Tell me, what's your take on Tom Kurlak's often times exagerated analysis? Most of what I know about this guy is what I read in SI, and most investors here don't have a favorable opinion on this guy's flip-flops. Anyway, it can't get much worse than what I had already endured...Heck, part of my LSI holding still has the $37 price tag on it, although I've averaged down considerably since then. This won't be the first time I've gone against Kurlak's prophecies... and WON. I'm holding...no cards. Regards, SF PS: Of course, a little maneuvering for milk money is also proper every now and then. <g>