To: RetiredNow who wrote (65617 ) 12/7/2020 8:09:58 PM From: petal 1 RecommendationRecommended By Lance Bredvold
Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78817 I can say right away that I had not "thought about all of that without me saying it", as you put it. Especially not as well-put as in your eloquent aphorism:Rather, gold is a standard by which all other things are measured. I still disagree somewhat though (as I usually will.) :-) The above would maybe be true if we still actually had the gold standard. Maybe it still is––I am often wrong!––but to me it seems that the price of gold, today, depends almost as much (sometimes, maybe even more!) on other factors as the price of other things depend on gold. Maybe gold is "more" of an independent variable than all others, but I think not: I think there are no independent variable, and that's part of the fiat problem. Everything, including gold, is interlocked. However, should there come a true, total crisis, my feeling is that the most independent variable will be good enough––even if they are all interlocked... (My rather abstract reasoning in the above paragraph will go out the window, in such a scenario (and if one's reasoning doesn't hold under the most extreme conditions, to speak with Taleb, what good is it?) (however, such an extreme event is so extreme, that we'd basically have to go into "sell everything"-mode) (may be warranted though...)) ...So actually, come to think of it, you may be right. At least if one takes the argument to its logical conclusion, an/or if the crisis comes. There must be some sort of "currency of last resort", right? Even beyond the lender of last resort, which is the gov't. Because we all know that governments (yes, even the US) can falter on their loans. Civilisations fall. What's more safe than US treasuries? Yes, gold. And in that case, we'll all revert to gold. But if the crisis doesn't come, gold looks overvalued to me. :-) Does that make any sense? Like you, I...like to post to get my own thoughts in order, which helps me explain my thinking to myself as well.