Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Ross who wrote (2029)	1/31/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: oexwa	Respond to of 18691

Dan, RE: ANAD and VTSS. I agree with you about VTSS being a good company, but the recent disaster in ANAD's stock convinced me to short VTSS. Both companies are involved in gallium arsenide circuits. While there are differences in the companies, they are generally talked about together. Some key numbers before and after Friday's debacle for VTSS and ANAD: ----------------------------- VTSS -- ANAD -- ANAD ----------------------------- 1-29-98 -- 1-29-98 -- 1-30-98 Price -------------------- 43.06 -- 33.81 -- 14.13 52 wk high ------------ 56.50 -- 54.25 -- 54.25 52 wk low -------------- 21.13 -- 21.00 -- 13.50 P.E. (TTM) ------------- 50 -- 27 -- 11 Price to Sales -------- 14 -- 5 -- 2 Price to Book --------- 5.9 -- 1.5 -- 1.2 Price to Cash Flow -- 39 -- 32 -- 11 ANAD's 58% haricut on Friday was attributed to the prospect of significantly lower sales in the next quarter that could result in a loss. This despite posting record sales for the fourth quarter and the year and exceeding earnings estimates. It's hard to believe that if ANAD caught pneumonia, VTSS wouldn't get a touch of the Asian Flu. A similar re-evaluation of VTSS would bring it to the $14 to $20 per share range. In addition to the potential of lower sales, IBM is developing and licensing its silicon-germanium (SiGe) heterojunction technology that could make GaAs obsolete, as it runs faster, cooler and costs less. High flyers like VTSS can drop a lot if a key analyst revises his estimates.

To: Dan Ross who wrote (2029)	1/31/1998 3:57:00 PM
From: Amots	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Dan I'm using Anadigics products at the 1.5GHz and higher. Most of the current market is at the 800-950 MHz where TQNT products are some what cheaper, but there are many other players. Above 1.5GHz there are not as many players (but more and more are stepping in) and in the power levels I'm working at (1-2 Watt) ANAD has a good product/price units. When more dual band phone and higer power PCS will come out there is a chance for recovery at ANAD (I will go long then, look at DSP (used to be DSPC) for the same kind of drop from 25 to 6). Good Luck (and short MOT) Amots