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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications-News Only!!! (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DHB who wrote (1083)2/1/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: Thomas M.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1629
 
2/2/98 Computer Reseller News 63
1998 WL 2189800
Computer Reseller News
Copyright 1998 CMP Publications Inc.

Monday, February 2, 1998

774

Features:Remote Access

Routing All Calls Through One Point Of Access
---
Ascend Communications, 3Com and Cisco Systems will roll out new access
concentrators and face added competition in a market growing 50 percent
annually
Daniel Lyons

Competition is heating up in the remote-access market, and VARs stand
to benefit from a slew of new products later this year that will bring

better performance and lower prices to the market.

The so-called "Big Three" remote-access vendors-3Com Corp., Ascend
Communications Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc.-all will introduce new access
concentrators this year.

Meanwhile, other networking vendors such as Bay Networks Inc. and
Cabletron Systems Inc., which traditionally have not been big players in
remote access, are launching new assaults on the market. Lucent
Technologies Inc. also joins the fray through its acquisition of
Livingston Enterprises Inc., now known as Lucent's Remote Access
Business Unit.

Those vendors are being drawn in by projections from market
researchers such as Dataquest Inc., which estimates the market for
remote-access concentrators will grow more than 50 percent annually for
the next several years, with prices per-port dropping at a rate of 12
percent per year. The biggest market for access concentrators will be
the 4,000 or so Internet service providers (ISPs) in the United States,
said Craig Johnson, principal analyst at Dataquest, based in San Jose,
Calif.

The good news for VARs is that networking vendors recognize their best
route to reach ISPs is through resellers. "All of the vendors are
looking for qualified VARs to help them expand their coverage. Qualified
VARs who can sell into this market are in a very good position, and it's
going to get even better," Johnson said.

Not only will VARs have vendors fighting over them, they also will be
able to choose from among a new generation of products that make life
easier for resellers by integrating technologies that previously had to
be bought separately. Technologies for tunneling, virtual private
networks (VPNs), encryption, bandwidth management, firewall security and
routing will start to show up in a single hardware platform rather than
in separate boxes.

The new servers also open new opportunities for resellers. While
first-and second-generation products supported only text-based
applications such as E-mail and Web-based applications such as Web
browsing, the new generation of access servers enables advanced
multimedia-based applications such as virtual network tunneling, data
encryption and network conferencing for a large number of concurrent

connections.
[For Gary(not Korn):
One such product is the the AS5300 remote-access server from Cisco,
San Jose.

Cisco made strong inroads with a new "next-generation" access
concentrator and is appealing to ISPs and large enterprise customers
with the promise of providing an "end-to-end" networking solution of
which remote access is only one component.

Maximum configuration on the AS5300 is 96 ports, at $468 per port,
bringing the total price to about $45,000. "That's the best pricing in
the market," said Tim McShane, director of product marketing for access
servers at Cisco.

The AS5300 leapfrogged other products in the market in terms of
functionality and performance and helped Cisco take share away from
other companies, the vendor said. "From 1996 to the third quarter of
1997, we went from having very little, almost negligible, market share
to having a market share in the high teens," McShane said. "We're
feeling very good about the trajectory."

The company most threatened by Cisco's new onslaught is 3Com, Santa
Clara, Calif., if only because it currently is a top player in the
market, with 36 percent of shipments and 40 percent of revenue,
according to Dataquest.

3Com owes its presence in the remote-access market to its merger with
U.S. Robotics, whose Total Control product line traditionally has been a
market leader.

3Com recently integrated the Total Control technology into its
SuperStack II platform, creating a stackable remote-access solution with
a $350-per-port price point. The new SuperStack II Remote Access 3000
system comes in a base configuration with 24 ports and can be expanded
with extra 24-port modules as a company's needs grow.

"With this product, we're reaching a part of the market that no other
manufacturer is hitting-the midsize company," said Kathleen Marini,
product marketing manager at 3Com. "It allows a company to
cost-effectively implement remote access at the port count they need."

Price for the Remote Access 3000 concentrator is $7,495. A router for
the concentrator is $2,995. An optional redundant power supply costs
$2,995.

Chasing 3Com for the market-leading position is Ascend Communications,
in Alameda, Calif., which has 33 percent of ports shipped and 30 percent
of revenue, according to Dataquest.

Not long ago, Ascend had the remote-access market more or less to
itself. Now, however, the company finds itself facing ever more intense
competition.

"The market has become very crowded," said Kurt Bauer, vice president
of access product management at Ascend. "The business has exploded, and
all sorts of new players have come along."

Ascend sells a range of remote-access products-from the low-end 200
Plus, which supports eight concurrent users and costs less than $3,000,
up to the carrier-class MAX TNT WAN-access switch, which can support
thousands of concurrent sessions. At the heart of the product line is
the MAX 4048, which was released early last year and supports up to 48

ports. [Korn: Not much here on new ASND products,like the DSLTNT]

Bay Networks, Santa Clara, offers a high-end carrier-class product
called the Model 5399 Remote Access Concentrator, which is used in the
System 5000 Multi-Service Switch. The product is the only concentrator
that can support either x2 or K56flex technologies for
56-Kbit-per-second modems. "With other vendors you have to choose one
technology over the other-your choices get limited. For our ISP
customers, this is a hugely important issue," said Rohit Mehra, Bay
Networks senior product manager.

Bay Networks strengthened its presence in the remote-networking arena
through its acquisition of New Oak Communications Inc. Within days of
the purchase, Bay Networks unveiled plans for a new remote-access
product designed for midsize companies and ISPs, the NOC 2000
extranet-access switch, which supports up to 200 concurrent remote
users.

Lucent, Murray Hill, N.J., is differentiating its PortMaster 3 product
on the basis of performance. Price-per-port is about $250, said Marty
Likier, product marketing manager. The 60-port PortMaster 3 is aimed at

small and midsize ISPs. Later this year, Lucent will introduce its
next-generation product, the PortMaster 4, which supports more than 600
ports, Likier said.

---- INDEX REFERENCES ----

COMPANY (TICKER): Ascend Communications Inc.; Cisco Systems Inc.; 3Com
Corp. (ASND CSCO COMS)

NEWS SUBJECT: World Equity Index; High-Yield Issuers (WEI HIY)

INDUSTRY: Communications Technology; Telecommunications, All (CMT TEL)

Word Count: 1011
2/2/98 COMRSNWS 63
END OF DOCUMENT



To: DHB who wrote (1083)2/1/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: Thomas M.  Respond to of 1629
 
Report from Dennis Duke at Montgomery conf. in San Fran:

Dennis confirms the Q&A as previously reported by Larry J. (He says it sounded like a
tape recording of where he was just at). Given that play by report, from side-bar
conversations from people within the company, Dennis adds the following:

1. Do not feel the LU deal will happen. Rather, the company is just building
infrastructure to grow the business. The previous infrastructure did not allow enough
forward visibility for good forecasting of future years of multiple quarters. Anyway, the
company is being conservative until they have the information to work with. The
infrastructure support target is such that it can support a company with between $3B and
$5B in sales. This suggests that the internal infrastructure goal contemplates ASND as a
separate company (otherwise, why spend money on infrastructure if just going to
consolidate 6 months from now).

2. The Oracle MIS system was reported to be being finished in Q4, which should provide
greater visibility. (Currrent visibility is limited to within 1 year, not the multi-year core
plan that is required.) This restriction on visibility is the fundamental reason why the
company is being so conservative about releasing information on major new clients. (I.e.,
want to keep control of the stock price...understand where we are going...this is where
we are going next, etc.)

3. Mgmt.remains positive on 2H98 and is "very" positive about prospects for 1999
(particularly with respect to voice over IP). Can't change 1999 estimates yet due to
visibility issue, so, can't guide analysts up yet (they are pretty flat on 1999 vs. 1998). The
overriding word is that the company will be conservative until they get more time to get a
handle on this visibility issue.

4. As for the AT&T contract, the order is not yet in hand, though equipment is being
tested and being favorably received. It appears that the order pattern will be: Here is a
purchase order for what we want during the current period (rather than a 5-year order,
although it might yet be forthcoming). It is the AT&T analysts who are reporting 200
points of ATM from ASND. Indeed, ASND read that news item with the same interest
we did (so we believe it is not in their numbers).

5. Other (non-ASND) sources at the conference advised Dennis that the new NN
switch is supposedly 4 times the physical size of ASND's switch, unknown throughput
capacity, and is being delayed until the Fall of 1998. Someone else commented that such
a huge size is not uncommon given Siemens' involvement.

6. A comment by ASND was made that Japan can't go any lower than now. So, can
only be growth somewhere down the line. Also, previously, CSCC product was only
being sold by North American reps. That is in the process of changing, so the worldwide
opportunity for sales is enormous.

6. By 2H98, the GBX550 will support direct hookup to two-way fiber without a
concentrator in between.

7. Dennis' bottom line assessment: He is holding because of the future substantial growth
opportunity of the company. He would expect to see the stock price begin to start its
move in Q2. Q1 will be played as predicted, but Q2 may (in Dennis view) potentially
exceed the predicted high single digit number.

Thank you Dennis Duke!!!



To: DHB who wrote (1083)2/1/1998 9:09:00 PM
From: Thomas M.  Respond to of 1629
 
Report from Larry J. at the Montgomery Conference

Looks like the main presentation was the same as MS, although it was handled by Ashby
and Schneider (Ejabat not present). The slides may be the same slides as MS well.

Short break-out session (just 20 minutes, unlike 1 hour in Scottsdale):

Q: How is business, what is the trend.

A: Pretty good, we are optimistic in general, despite Japan. We still had a good Q4.
Outlook is "quite good...cautious 1H/Q1....cautious Japan, no recover til 2H."

Q: Are carriers any weaker this year than same time last year?

A: Carriers are more commited to data than 1 year ago. Strength in backbone buildout.
See more subscribers. FR continues to grow. More upbeat broadband RBOCs/CLECs.

Q: WCOM?

A: They are very aggressive. Expect Frame network supported by ATM infrastructure
(generically stated). Lots of new players. Qwest, Williams. Bandwidth bottlenecks are
being broken, which is creating opportunity."

Q: Interfaces?

A: Shipping OC-3 and OC-12. See OC-48 in 2H. More OC-3 than 12 now. GX550 starts
with OC-12 and goes up.

Q: Is OC-48 advancing to 1H at all?

A: Not with ATM interface.

Q: Early customer feedback on GX550?

A: Very positive, several in beta, they will be in beta till end of Q1. Revenue begins in
Q2. Trials going extremely well. Nothing but good results.

Q: How many customers in beta?

A: "There are a number of customers in beta."

Q: Europe and deregulation?

A: The opportunity is "immense." Deregulation has increased. See strength in Germany,
France and So. Europe. Weaker in UK and Northern Europe due to fact that CSCC did
not have a large international structure.

Q: Linearity of business in a quarter?

A: Q4 better than previous 2 or 3 quarters. Still, the last month of a quarter is still
important. Improved vision for next few quarters helps improve linearity.

Q: Industry growth rate slowing to 20%?

A: Some segments much lower growth rate, some much faster than industry. Backbone
is much faster than industry. RAS sees growth still above industry std. Sees TELCOs
migrating to public data networks.

Q: What were inventory turns in Q4?

A: 4.1, up from 3. Target is 5.5 to 6. Expect to see that within about 2 quarters.

Q: How is component availability and lead time?

A: Availability is not an issue and don't expect it to be. Seeing improvements in DRAM
pricing, which is one reason for improvement in gross margins. Have a better ability to
forecast component needs.

Q: Split in CSCC between chassis and cards?

A: Cards is where the money is at (everyone laughs at this). Vast majority of revenue is
complete boxes.

Q: Impact of other competitors? Better RAS products, e.g. CSCO?

A: Max TNT has T3 access, giving ASND a clear advantage. Track the competition
closely. Competitive landscape has not appreciably changed. Also, we are not standing
still either.

Q: ISP consolidation and new ownership?

A: This is working to our advantage. MCI was going to deploy non-ASND RAS. It is
now on hold (the implication is that it they may evaluate ASND as a result of the
WCOM relationship).

Q: Is momentum to switching or carrier products?

A: Depends on definition. Three groups, access, core and enterprise. Core is fastest
growth, access is still significant growth.

Q: Quality issues?

A: Engineering group completely reorganized. One quality engineer for 2 s/w engineers.
New leadership, new processes, better in-circuit test (ICT). A lot more careful on testing
than they used to be. Added more testing labs. New TNT s/w end of February. Much
more stringent testing. By far best s/w release yet. Q: Expectations for xDSL deployment?

A: Two activities: Sees in 1998, TELCOs continue trials. Sees large volume with CLECs
(data services in large bldgs.) It will be 1999 before Telcos make a major move and large
scale deployment.

Q: Any permanent customer damage due to quality?

A: To the best of my knowledge, ASND has not lost a single customer. No long term
customer damages. Thank you very much.

THAT IS IT.....THANK YOU LARRY J!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



To: DHB who wrote (1083)2/1/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: Thomas M.  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1629
 
Dennis Duke's revisions to previous report:

As to Gary's pass thru transmission from me at Montgomery Securities' conference, I
have two corrections which are minor, but want to set the record straight.

As to point 2: the MIS systems will be completed (future tense) in Q4 1998. That
completion will allow better visibility from Order entry through to Financial Statements.

As to point 6: Japan could go down from 5% level, but the downside is limited, and the
upside is expected later in this fiscal year.

I will be posting later the variances in the overheads. There were new charts added to
this presentation that were not in the MS conference. Defining CLECS, and responding
to units in the Del Or'O report.

I spoke to Gary while driving so my notes were not available. I'll be checking those as
well.

One thing that I thought was interesting was that there was a side bar discussion with
Ashby and other non-company people, about which analyst follow the company closely.
Solomon Smith Barney's analyst was mentioned as being one of the better ones, by
Ashby. Out of the 30 or so analyst that follow the company, it was mentioned that many
of them do a poor job of even staying in touch with the company, and maybe are not
providing current guidance about new events within ASND including ATM prospects
among other things.

My 2 cents for my first posting on SI, Dennis



To: DHB who wrote (1083)2/1/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: blankmind  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1629
 
DSL to miss Santa

By Tim Greene
Network World Fusion, 1/27/98

Washington, D.C. - So maybe DSL won't be under your Christmas tree this year.

When the consortium of Intel Corp., Compaq Computer Corp., Microsoft Corp. and the regional Bell operating companies this week took the wraps off their alliance to push a user-friendly version of the broadband access technology, they had a more modest proposal than initially reported.

The first thing to go was the notion that a DSL standard could be set by Christmas.

But they think they can speed up the standards process and make asymmetric DSL (ADSL) a much more common commodity.

The DSL version supported by the consortium, known as the Universal ADSL Working Group (UAWG), is designed to be as easy to use as the common analog modem. Known generically as splitterless DSL, it would eliminate a box called a splitter that sits at the customer site and filters out a regular voice channel from the high-bandwidth DSL datastream. The datastream would offer up to 1.5M bit/sec toward the customer and perhaps half that bandwidth the other way.

The splitterless feature makes it easier for carriers because they do not have to send someone out to install the splitter. And with help from the likes of Microsoft and Compaq, the customer could buy a PC and software package off the shelf that could configure the service painlessly.

While the group represents an impressive collection of big names, they need to coordinate their efforts to make any difference.

So far, they hope their combined efforts can get a standards proposal before the International Telecommunication Union next month, and get back a stable version of it by year-end. That could get hardware vendors working on standards-compliant modems also by year-end.

After that, it would be up to software vendors and PC makers to develop installation software and modems that the average consumer can use.

Carriers involved with the UAWG said they would not stray from their announced DSL deployment plans regardless of the standard. But when splitterless DSL is standardized, they will blend it in with their offerings, they said.

Their hope is that the splitterless DSL modems they would install at their switching offices would fit into the DSL multiplexers they are already using.

Services would include Internet access and remote LAN access.

Carriers desperately want to stay away from the customer site if possible because of the cost and definitely want to stay out of configuring the user PC for DSL.

Microsoft employees involved in DSL trials had trouble configuring their home PCs to support the service, according to Daniel Steele, a Microsoft business development manager. "Configuring the PC has been somewhat of a daunting task even for some of our people, who are some of the more astute technical folks," he said.

Customers who already have ADSL service say the Internet is becoming a necessity, not just a convenience, according to Mark Hubscher, director of ADSL for Ameritech Corp. The DSL line is dedicated, so the customer spends no time logging in. The connection is up all the time.