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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flickerful who wrote (6194)	1/31/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

IDT has had a lot of periods when it approached 14-15 and only temporarily moved past. The story has changed and the fundamentals are improving from earnings loses to slight gains, but not yet enough to support a much higher price IMO. There are still too many market and company performance concerns that place a risk/reward limitation that prevents interpreting the scenario most favorably. Sure we think that a high level of success is likely, but it is not at all assured quite yet. Some investors who had bought the stock during previous rallies may be inclined to bail out, not understanding the potential for long-term appreciation. Other investors who bought at lower prices may be inclined to take some profits as the price approaches within striking distance of the 12 month targets set by analysts. And brokers will become more disposed to advise their clients to invest in other stocks. Stocks often tend to undershoot and overshoot their resonable valuations due to momentum. IDTI could punch through 14 or 15, but if it does, I think it will punch right back. For the past few days we have seen high volumes. Yesterday, despite very high volume, the stock was unable to move up much. That is a sign that willing sellers entered the market to release the buying pressure. I also noticed that block trades had largely dried up as the price moved past 13. I don't want to throw cold water on the party, but I think it's better to tell it like I see it than raise expectations unreasonably. IDTI could well turn out to be the semi play of '98. But it's unlikely that the move up will come all at once. I doubt that IDTI will pull back from the current level by much as long as the overal market stays reasonably stable.