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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cymeed who wrote (13780)	1/31/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 25960

For those who disagree with JayD's $0.40 estimate, I would suggest everybody on this thread better listen to him for the time being. He may go a little conservative and have the number slightly lower. So he has more room for upward revision late. But I do believe his estimate should be in the approximaty. Let's face the fact, those analysts do this kind of thing for a living, they have information not only from Cymi, but also from other equipment makers and chip makers. They definitely have a clearer overall picture than most of us here on this thread. At least, JayD was right when he downgraded the stock 4 months ago and saw the revenue shortfall way before most people here. He may be right again that 1998 will not be a great year for Cymi in terms of revenue and profits. (But he also said 1998 is a great year for Cymi in terms of stock price by raising his rating.) I was wondering about the huge distribution yesterday myself. There are just too many people wanting to bail at the $16 level. That's OK. As Mr. Aloha said, although we will continue to see up's and down's, the road from here is definitely brighter than the road we have crossed. But there may be another possibility too. Cymi acted like this before. The large volume takes out all the sells in one or two days without major price upward. Then the following low-volume days take the price up further. On a separate note, I have to highly praise the decision by the company to use $50 million cash for share buy back. After taking 3 million shares off the market float, the supply will be much tighter (therefore, better chance for price appreciation). A lot of weakness in the last 5 months or so has to do with the extra 3 million shares resulted from the convertible bonds (3 million shorts). On top of that, we will have a higher EPS with less shares available. They just received $172 million by selling a little over 3 million shares last year, and then use part of that proceed ($50 million) to buy back almost the same amount of shares. They still net >$100 million profits from these two trasactions. What a bargain for all the shareholders ! No wonder somebody shouted that "Why not buy back the bonds ? It's our money you are taking advantage of" - twisted the cc question a little to make my point.) This decision also demonstrated the willingness of company management to enhance shareholder value and the readiness for them to support the share price during difficult times. I have seen a lot of smoking screen share buy back program in the past with many other companies. But folks, this one is for real. You can judge that from the size of this buy back. Not too many companies will announce a buy back of 12% of its total outstanding at one time. Good luck, everybody.