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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bill c. who wrote (1188)	1/31/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: CJ Quantumwell	Respond to of 12623

Bill, Thank you for the Alex's post. It is a very good commentary. Especially, <<The product is not in pilot production and a year-end delivery seems aggressive to us. >> I agree with these deeply. Telecom industry has very high standards on quality and reliability. After you have a optical system running, it usually takes more than 3/4 of a year to put all the softwares together to manage the system properly and then you go out for the field trial. Not to mention now, this is a 80 channel system. If they can even have a field trial ready, it will be a milestone. The things I don't have the same view with Alex is the high confidence on Ciena in the future, two years down the road. In this industry, people know they are the first to introduce 8 and 16 channel commercial systems. Many of us have great respect to this new star. The 8 channel system is very solid and we will see how the 16 channel does after the second quarter. As he points out, CIEN is working on 40 channels and it may be the leader on that front as far as the field trial concern. However, it doesn't seem as easy as before. Why? The components we have now in the market put a big hurdle on close to 40 channel system. You need much better components and "time" to make 80 channel happen. This time Lucent, NEC or Nortel will not give out their key components that easy. BTW, I don't know if CIEN have 10G technology either. It is a huge disadvantage since 10Gb systems are not as expensive as people think and the prices are coming down. ( just pay attention to what system Qwest picked ) The debate between 2.5G and 10G is not over yet. I guess I will go back for more technical work. Chat with you much later. CJ

To: bill c. who wrote (1188)	1/31/1998 10:37:00 PM
From: Greg Strzegowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Everyone on this thread is missing the point. On 1/16/98 CIENA had a competitive advantage. On 1/23/98 CIENA no longer had a competitive advantage. No advantage no high multiple.