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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (10283)	1/31/1998 1:21:00 PM
From: Teddy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Donald, i'm still long term bullish on this sector (long term = i'll still be a young man when most of the people on this thread have died of old age). This is a snip from thestreetdotcom (remember, we have been told that oil must stay below $15 per barrel for 6 months before E&P companies cut drilling) "...This week's rally "was a little more than a blip up," says Tim Evans, a senior energy analyst at Pegasus Econometric Group. "It was quite a sharp short covering rally. But it was a vulnerable rally based on one issue." Evans says the possibility of military action against Iraq "drove the bears running for cover." By Friday, all the shorts were basically squeezed out, precipitating a modest decline in oil prices. Crude for March delivery declined 61 cents to $17.20. Mike Smolinski, vice president of First Albany's energy group in Boston, believes that oil prices sticking above $17 a barrel Friday is an important positive for the struggling sector. Above that level, he argues, oil companies will work more actively to develop reserves, boosting the services and exploration & production sectors. But whether oil will stick above $17 depends much on Saddam Hussein...." Teddy's thought: i hope drillers stay down untill the March auction so i can unload some tech and buy more of this sector.

To: donald sew who wrote (10283)	1/31/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: RGinPG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

I have compiled a chart of the OSX overlaid with Light Sweet Crude cash settlement prices for the last 3 years. It made be found at my web site lonestar.texas.net under the OSX Vs Oil in the contents on the left. Some conclusions I made from this chart are that the OSX does fall initially with Oil prices, but after a term the OSX stabilizes and goes back up regardless of what the price of oil does. Once the market has absorbed the "shock" of lower oil prices, the earnings realities (earnings don't change) take back over and the stock prices go back up. I think this is also what you were saying.