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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. K. G. who wrote (13792)	2/2/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Nevin S.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 25960

To all regarding .40 eps estimate for 1998. First of all, I own a substantial position in CYMI and hope to see this company do well in the upcomming year. Secondly what I'm about to post is not my view but that of an analyst that follows this market segment and CYMI closely. That being said, one must first consider the source of the earnings estimate Jay Deahna with Morgan Stanley/Dean Whitter and when it was made (after the conference call/earnings report). Once again thanks to Scott for the transcript of the call. In the Q&A section, Deahna asks, 'How many DUV steppers wer installed at chip makers during the fourth quarther?' Atkins answers, '82 or 83.' Deanha asks, '...starting in the first quarter, do you envision the installed (number of lasers) crossing over and being higher than the number of shipments?' Angus answers, 'About equal.' Remembering that the number of lasers shipped for the quarter was 131, what he's asking here is very crucial. If only 82 systems were installed into factories last quarter, yet 131 were shipped to system manufacturers, it would seem that manufacturers have built up some inventory. Furthermore, will system mfgs buy more lasers than sytems shipped to chip makers? Angus answers - about equal. If any of you remember, this Deanha was fixated on this issue during the last conference call. Now I realize that CYMI is ramping new products that are differentiated by use and cost and this may stimulate additional demand for their products, but if the number of steppers being shipped/installed does not pick up, then they will experience a material adverse impact in their earnings not only in the first quarter but for the entire year. Hence, Jay Deanha's projections. Comments?