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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (9257)2/1/1998 5:17:00 AM
From: Ben Beale  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13925
 
Doug,

I strongly think you're right about Asia and the pundits. I'm no economist, but I know there are more than a few mulinationals out there that can figure out that currency fluctuations have made Asian products more competitive. CREAF is an example.

I would not be surprised to see companies that report earnings in U.S. dollars (or in local currancies that can't be broken by speculators, like HK$) hustling right now to get orders, denominated in local currencies that have been hard hit (ie: Korea, Singapor) on contract. Then they'll hedge those contracts in the foreign currency futures markets. Building on your comments, if you're correct, I would expect to see Dell, Compaq, Gateway, and maybe IBM) locking in future year's orders at today's bargain basement prices. For CREAF, that would mean substantial new long-term deals; good for earnings forecasts, good for our stock price.

I think you're also right again that medium-term (4-12 months out), thoese currencies will have appreciated against the dollar. I think others may think so too: look at what Treasuries have been doing the last several days.

I would appreciate another post as you see things develping. I'll try to do the same.

r/s
Ben



To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (9257)2/2/1998 7:17:00 PM
From: Douglas Webb  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13925
 
After today's action, do you still beleive Creaf will trade in the $16 - $20 ($22.5?) channel during the current quarter? We went from $19 to $20 easily enough today, but getting that extra 1/16 took all day. Is this the turnaround for the ride back down, or the establishment of a new support?

Short term, I'm hoping to see the bottom of your channel around late Feb to early March. I've got $20 calls to buy back...

Doug Webb.