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Biotech / Medical : Immunomedics (IMMU) - moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockdoc77 who wrote (59148)	12/22/2020 11:39:33 PM
From: allatwwk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63329

stockdoc, glad to hear your mood improving!! I can't even imagine the sort of roller coaster you and the people you work with have been on. A few questions about R. First off, getting to 60% immune means the virus spread rates decline (assuming R is 2.5). Does this take into account how much more mobile society is these days? My concern is that the average person interacts with far more people than they did historically. And in spaces which are more likely to transmit infectious diseases. Second, while there is a petering out effect, there will be a lot of people infected before it does. How does one estimate this. At 60% immune, this means there are 200 million people in America immune and 130 million who aren't immune. How many of those 130 million get COVID-19 before it truly peters out? Third, is R a function of the season? The spike in covid-19 rates seemed to track the change in season, which concurrently changes the way we live day to day. Its hardly the only disease to show this pattern. Perhaps less UV light and colder temperatures play a role, too? Do we understand how R varies seasonally? Is this an additional factor in the equation? Or is it really driven almost entirely by behaviors? Lastly, am I correct in your 60% assumption that R won't change much? As I understand viruses, it is very much a 'survival of the fittest' and the ones with the highest R are likely to become the dominant strains. I'd guess it is too early to determine the R for the UK strain recently identified. But it does seem higher.