To: Ali Chen who wrote (4113 ) 2/1/1998 1:39:00 AM From: Robert Walter Respond to of 6843
Ali & All, Here is another Lehman Brothers report from 1/30/97. Headline: Semiconductors: Weekly Chip Price Survey Author: M. A. Gumport, CFA 1(212)526-5368/C. Gangi -3754/T. Berg -5276 Rating: Company: AMD,IDTI,INTC,MU,NSM, Country: IND CUS Industry: SEMICO Today's Date : 1/30/98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * DRAM PRICING MIXED FOR PAST WEEK; 16 MBITs FLAT/UP, 64 MBITS FLAT/DOWN. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DRAMs: 16 MBITS INCHING UP; 64 MBITS STILL MOVING DOWN. 16 Mbit DRAMs were flat/up for the past week. A big boom in pricing 2 weeks ago gave way to a flat trend and now another slight uptick. Meanwhile, 64 Mbit DRAM pricing is still moving lower. 64 Mbits are still priced at more than the normal 4-5x premium over 16 Mbit devices, but the spread has substantially narrowed and we would expect 16 Mbit and 64 Mbit prices to move pretty much in parallel now. We note that MU-$33 13/16-4 has been a big beneficiary of the upsurge in DRAM pricing. We see no need currently to change our below consensus EPS projections, and we would view news on DRAM pricing next week (after Chinese New Year) as much more meaningful. AT THE MOMENT, ABOUT 2/3'S OF WORLD DRAM CAPACITY IS ON HOLIDAY SCHEDULE, 1/3 OF WORLD DEMAND IS ON HOLIDAY SCHEDULE, AND THIS WEEK'S SLIGHT UPTICK IN 16 MBIT DRAM PRICING CANNOT BE TAKEN AS CONFIRMATION OF AN UPTREND OR EVEN STABILITY. PROCESSORS: STEEP DECLINES; CLONES DOING WELL. Pentium family prices are down steeply in line with INTC's-$82-3 cuts early this week. We continue to be struck by 2 facts: 1) The unusually steep pace of decline (which, in part, reflects INTC's success in moving to low cost 0.25 micron output and, in part, the presence of competition), 2) AMD's parts continue to sell at a good premium to list and in line with spot targets. Discussions with NSM-$27-2 earlier this week confirm that they received at least $60-70 on average for their GX processors (sold exclusively to Compaq) last quarter, about 30% above our expectations, and their new Gx-MMX will go for over $110. AMD continues to have major production uncertainties and, in the interim, customers have turned to IDTI's-$13 1/16-2 new Centaur chip; we are receiving first reports of favorable customer reviews on Centaur. IN A NUTSHELL: PHASE 3. Despite Asia/Pacific fears, the U.S. economic backdrop remains very favorable. A rebound from distress tax selling (phase 1) and a setback on tough 4Q EPS reports (phase 2) has now given way to renewed chip stock buying (phase 3) as we enter the seasonally strongest period for orders with the group still in the lower quartile of their historical valuation range. Some signs of order uptrends have already emerged, but much of the buying has to be called conceptual since 1H98 trends look relatively weak. We expect a summer setback followed by a stronger rally in late 1998. Our focus remains on the most profitable companies with the best momentum and/or those with a long term improving trend in gross margins. Chip Prices: NECX Flash 1/29 16M TSOP $12.88 8M TSOP $ 5.05 4M PLCC $ 4.00 2M PLCC $ 3.48 1M PLCC $ 2.13 Chip Prices (Cont'd) p.2 NECX SRAM 1/29 32Kx8 SOJ (15ns) $ 0.75 128Kx8 SOJ (20ns) $ 1.60 DRAMS AICE --% CHG VS.-- NECX 64MBITS 01/29 1WK 2 WKS 1MO 01/29 Sync 4Mx16 $18.67 0.0% 0.0% -11.8% $--.-- Sync 8Mx8 $19.20 0.0% 0.0% -11.2% $--.-- Sync 16Mx4 $23.46 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $--.-- 4MX16EDO $22.95 -6.1% -6.1% -6.1% $--.-- 8MX8 $17.14 0.0% 23.5% -10.1% $--.-- 16MX4EDO $15.81 -7.7% 6.1% 1.4% $--.-- 16MX4 $17.60 -6.7% -6.7% -14.2% $--.-- 16MBITS Sync 1Mx16 $4.44 0.0% 0.0% 28.0% $-.-- Sync 2Mx8 $3.52 0.0% 0.0% 50.1% $-.-- Sync 4Mx4 $3.67 4.0% -2.9% -7.7% $-.-- 1Mx16 EDO $3.23 0.0% 0.0% 46.9% $2.75 1Mx16 $2.76 8.0% 8.0% 15.5% $2.85 2Mx8 EDO $3.32 0.0% 0.0% -.-% $2.55 2Mx8 $3.16 -3.1% -3.1% 26.2% $2.65 4Mx4 EDO $3.65 8.1% 8.1% 61.1% $3.60 4Mx4 $3.62 4.5% 4.5% 42.0% $3.70 4MBITS 256Kx16 $2.30 0.0% 2.4% 11.7% $2.30 1Mx4 EDO $0.80 -7.0% 3.9% 12.8% $0.77 1MX4 $0.88 -6.9% 22.4% 14.4% $0.77 LIST AICE -------% CHG VS.-------- NECX PENTIUM SURVEY 1/26 01/29 1WK 2WKS 1MO. 1/29 P2-300 $530 $592 -4.1% -18.2% -17.0% $529 P2-266 $375 $384 -8.3% -20.6% -20.6% $365 P2-233 $268 $272 0.0% +0.8% -3.2% $267 P6/Pro-200 (256k) $487 $469 0.0% -3.3% -3.3% $441 P55C-233 (MMX) $193 $224 -17.6% -21.5% -22.4% $189 P55C-200 (MMX) $123 $141 +2.2% -32.6% -32.6% $121 P55C-166 (MMX) $ 95 $104 0.0% -5.6% -5.6% $100 K6 (ESC - small lots) K6-233 $138e* $172 -16.7% ----% -18.7% $166 K6-200 $ 92e* $165 -0.1% ----% -5.8% $155 e*- assumes a roughly 25% discount to Intel Pentium/P55C processors. Disclosure Legend: A-Lehman Brothers Inc. managed or co-managed within the past three years a public offering of securities for this company. B-An employee of Lehman Brothers Inc. is a director of this company. C-Lehman Brothers Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company. G-The Lehman Brothers analyst who covers this company also has position in its securities.] Robert