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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (166345)	12/24/2020 10:58:31 AM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 218640

Correction: strike for APPN LEAPs is 175, not 120.

To: carranza2 who wrote (166345)	12/24/2020 2:11:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218640

Re <<Drawdown>> Folks bum-rushed by all the negative regulatory kibitzing. GBTC heading higher, a wild guess. My GBTC almost a double in the relative short time. Might sell some and shall only buy more if TSLA keeps on giving. Overall position is 1/3 - 1/2 of TSLA gains-to-date. RE <<I thought TSLA would crash and burn after I made highly profitable sales, but it turns out that I left money on the table>> I vaguely remember that I reckoned you should consider exchanging some portion of your gains for leap calls so to remain in w/o all-in. I also remember and was able to search for this Message 32835868 <<unusual that you and I both are creating wealth from TSLA even as you are long and I am short>> No matter, all good and fun, so good. Beautiful 2020 well played. In the meantime did below, essentially ... (1) Closed / bought-back earlier shorted DRD Jan / Feb / May Puts, recognizing profit, and rolled for more cash by opening / adding to / shorting DRD Aug Puts, keeping obligations about the same or easier, given the ‘correct’ price of DRD is likely 10.5-11.5. The objective is to keep improving on the obligation burden, get more cash, and lower overall cost-basis. Okay to actually make good on obligations. (2) Sold then bought, between yesterday (NY time as opposed to HK time) and today TSLA call / put derivatives for profit and more profit. I engage in the same-day actions as sweetener to the longer-term (30-90 days) gaming of TSLA, to keep fit, and to top-up. The objective w/ TSLA is to remain generally net-short so as to secure overall NAV (i.e. should Nasdaq and general market crash then TSLA crash more), generate cash, never-ever make-good on promises, and using TSLA as negative-carry funding currency for DRD and GBTC and and and ... physical gold. (3) The kids managed (by answering yes / no to multiple choices along the way) the year-to-date well enough, scoring whatever, w/ the Jack more adventurous and the Coconut more steady steady; both good, w/ one portfolio of mix-bag stuff (DRD, GBTC, XOM, NIO, and PYPL) and another of totally useless stuff DRD and GBTC. They shall likely buy physical gold w/ the gains (anything above 10K) and reset portfolios to 10K on 1st January to play again 2021. The “19th February” is a side bet that was their birthday present where they get to keep the gains on closing of 19th February, 2021. On GBTC, they watched me for awhile and waited out their understandable hesitation / pause, then plunged in. A good lesson for them.

To: carranza2 who wrote (166345)	12/24/2020 2:22:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218640

RE <<BTC ... GBTC ... drawdown ...>> ... over :0) bloomberg.com Bitcoin (XBT) Price Rally Makes It Breakout Investment Asset of 2020 - Bloomberg Bitcoin just won’t go away. The original cryptocurrency again had commentators eating their words in 2020 -- yours truly included. It’s now time to accept it’s here to stay. Like Monty Python’s Black Knight, Bitcoin believers treat near-fatal volatility as mere flesh wounds. Drops of 80% are welcomed as fortuitous buying opportunities. But far from being a weakness, this is evidence of the asset class’ longevity. The cryptocurrency rallied 224% this year, bringing to mind the wild advances of 2017 as it soared to record highs. While the supply side of the schedule is algorithmically defined, I was caught off guard by the ability of the demand side to withstand volatility. I went into more detail in how my thinking on this asset class evolved in this YouTube podcast: Talking Gold and Bitcoin with Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano Supply of the digital tokens are capped at a maximum of 21 million which it is expected to reach in 2140, with periodic reductions in the reward for the network of computers that certify transactions. Yet supply dynamics aren’t sufficient to guarantee a long-term future. Many assets have artificially limited supply: Baseball cards, limited print-run art work, and a number of historic Ponzischemes fall into this category. What distinguishes the successes is how investors respond to crashes. In most cases, when a vehicle designed purely around the greater-fool theory collapses, it never recovers. There has been no substantial progress made on Bitcoin as a unit of exchange. It’s far from widespread adoption as a currency. Since Bitcoin’s market capitalization reached $1 billion in March 2013, there have been two cycles of spikes to record highs, followed by drawdowns of more than 80%. Each of those cycles were preceded by a halving of the block reward.The first cycle could be dismissed as an anomaly, the second as a coincidence. But a halving again occurred in May, and the cycle is repeating before our eyes with the cryptocurrency coming within a whisker of the all-time peak last week. To ignore it now is to dismiss the evidence of history. Like social networks, cryptocurrencies derive their value from the number of users. I could build a platform with the exact qualities of, and even some improvements over, Facebook, but achieving critical mass is another matter. The cryptocurrency remains a speculative asset and more needs to happen to secure its claim to preserve wealth over time. Volatility would have to decline, and a reliable link to inflation would have to emerge. But to bet against Bitcoin recovering from the next crash is to bet against experience. And its sheer, bloody-minded survival is what gives it the best chance at eventually becoming the ultimate store of value. (Eddie van der Walt writes for the Bloomberg Markets Live blog. The observations he makes are his own and not intended as investment advice. For more markets commentary, see the MLIV blog.) Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE