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To: GS_Wall Street who wrote (8103)	1/31/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

Greg; I think the thin clients will get some desktops in large corporations with fast intranets, and Java might make some headway there. It might be that Java needs to take a couple of years to develop infrastructure. I understand IBM, among others, is spending millions on Java. Looking forward for 5 years I speculate that 500 Gig hard drives will cost what ten gig cost today. The fibre internet will be a reality. A lot of ISPs will vanish, both by consolidation and dead from fiber poisoning. The thin client of that day will run over 1000 base optic, and will be quite fat. I think there will be a period of greater control over corporate desktops to cut the wasted time on the web. However the convergence of win9x and NT will rule the desktop still. I cannot see another OS chasing them away, unless AAPL gets a few things right tomorrow and keeps doing it for five years. Even if Apple grows at 20% for five years it will stay at under 4%, as the Wintels are also growing that fast. AAPL needs 5 years of 50% growth to even get anywhere. 94 (wintel) x 1.2 x 1.2 x 1.2 x 1.2 x 1.2 = 238 4 (AAPL) x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 = 30.38 That is 5 years of AAPL growing at 50% compound will get them to 12.7% market shares\ based on boxes. Even if they double every year for 5 years they will and up at 128, or around 53% of WIntel Of course if Wintel stops it will be easier, faint hope. Bill

To: GS_Wall Street who wrote (8103)	1/31/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Dylan	Respond to of 213173

<<All I know is that in 5 years we will be doing things differntly than we are today. Will Windows 9x or NT still be around?>> Windows 9x certainly won't be around, but maybe Windows 0x will =) Sorry, I couldn't resist. More seriously, I believe that while the NC will be popular for certain users, it will not completely take over the market. The idea of having terminals is not new, but the present technology makes it much nicer. Still, freedom associated with having your own computer unaccessable by others cannot be ignored, and will not be ignored by many industries. The NC will thrive in several areas: 1) College & University computer labs 2) Retail (to access account information, special order items, etc.) - businesses that now use wintels but are better suited for NC's (i.e. Midas) 3) Informational systems: Airlines, credit card accounts, etc. Right now these companies are either using wintels or very old dos or unix based terminals. 4) Corporate intranets for communication, but independent of the personal computer work that requires more power. I guess that if the questions of local storage and security are answered, the PC could be completely replaced. However, when the network goes down, nobody can do any work instead of just one person's computer crashing. Just my thoughts.... -Dylan