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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (166621)	1/2/2021 7:56:37 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 219539

BTC cannot defined as a security and nether a foreign currency, 26 U.S. Code Subpart J—Foreign Currency Transactions

To: carranza2 who wrote (166621)

1/2/2021 6:28:08 PM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 219539

RE <<This might be the pin>>

... maybe.

I have some thoughts from last night which I intend to put in random helterskelter framework during this (Sunday) day's meanderings.

- Lunch this day shall be on Lamma Island, and on the boat ride out shall ask the kids what if anything they wish to do about their portfolios (take cash out, or let it ride). Their theoretical portfolios started at 10K on 2020.01.01, and they have managed as I have to a gain, and they have option to take the gain out as cash.

- During the year I asked them multiple-choice questions at certain points when I made known to them any macro views, and what if any moves they wished to tag to my moves.

- Dinner last night was with head of research of bulge-bracket bank, and I believe I recruited another prospective faithful to the cause. BTC is no longer an asset class. Promoted to Cause :0)

In the meantime, some technicals on that which is impossible to value, presumed to fall somewhere between -0- and 500K, USD, or -0- and 2.5M, RMB.

The below forecast service is subscribed to by the friend w/ the 3,675 coins. He can better afford it than I Message 33112852 . The service has a decent track record, as does the friend.

cdn.substack.com

willywoo.substack.com

This is the PAID EDITION of The Bitcoin Forecast, they are sent whenever on-chain structure changes, usually every 2-4 weeks.

Enable images to see the charts in this email. Please don’t reply to this email, individual consultations are not yet available, questions should be posted publicly as a comment.

#forecast 009 : The main bull phase

Jan 2

Dear subscribers,

Welcome to The Bitcoin Forecast #009.

In my last letter, the on-chain structure was clearly bullish. Since then, the price has rallied to new all-time-highs.

Bitcoin presently sits below a 30k resistance band with many technical indicators showing overbought. This is a quick update on the minor changes I’m seeing on-chain since my last letter.

Top level summary for 2nd January 2021 (current price $29.8k):

· Short term: BULLISH. On-chain structure remains bullish, even more so. Buying pressure continues to climb keeping the fundamentals inline with the price rally, BTC is no more overheated than in November.

· Long term investors should not wait for price pullbacks to deploy further capital. Given the capital flows, the dip many are looking for may not happen until higher levels.

· Long term: The main bull phase is here, the phase when larger than usual capital inflows drive BTC’s price exponentially higher. It has come early this cycle.

Seasons greetings for 2021, it will be a good one!

-Willy Woo

Analysis BreakdownInvestor activity continues to be strongly bullish.If you recall, impulses of coins changing hands between HODLers signify peaks in investor activity and often lead to changes in price vector. In my last letter we had a strong impulse which was determined to be bullish. Since then, price has rallied 21% and this bullish impulse continues to be sustained.

The bullish capital flows continue to be strong, keeping the speculative price premium above the estimated fundamental valuation in check. This rally while warming up is no more overheated than late November when the price topped $17k consolidated and continued onwards very quickly.

Looking into the shorter term investment flows happening on spot exchanges, investors are strongly buying this all-time-high.

In the chart below we can see BTC is moving off exchanges while USDC flows into exchanges is nearing all-time-highs, a classic buying pattern. Investor buying strength has increased in recent weeks.

Some comments about price actionThe overall impact on price action is very plain to see, all dips are being bought. Many technical traders are seeing overbought signals, however the fundamentally bullish capital flows is a clear sign that we are not ready for a pull back at these level. If you’re a trader, please bear this in mind.

If you’re an investor looking to deploy more exposure, waiting for a dip is not advisable as the dip is very likely coming at higher levels.

We are now in the main phase of the bull marketCapital inflow into BTC can be tracked by Realised Capitialisation. In essence we look at the prices that investors bought their coins, sum all the coins up, and we arrive at the total amount of capital existing investors have invested. Note this is different from Market Cap which is the result of speculative pricing.

The growth or slope in Realised Cap tells us the rate of capital influx into BTC.

In the chart above we can clearly see the green line, the capital Bitcoin is drawing in (as a percentage of its present size), is now at a juncture where it goes strongly vertical.

It’s this phase which I like to frame as the “Main Bull Phase”. Which comes after the re-accumulation phase which I wrote about in the last letter. In this phase, capital inflows become very strong, driving BTC’s price exponentially upwards until mania takes place later in the cycle. The main bull phase has come early compared to the previous cycle.