To: Big Bucks who wrote (15213 ) 2/1/1998 11:49:00 AM From: Proud_Infidel Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
Not sure if this was posted. Some very bullish comments on the equipment sector for 1998.techweb.cmp.com Excerpts:VLSI Research's Hutcheson is forecasting a bullish 20% increase in global semiconductor equipment investments in 1998. That would amount to $45 billion vs. $37 billion in 1997. He figures that gear from the last wave of fab expansion -- occurring between 1993 and 1995 -- is due to be replaced with new technology and systems. "Any investments made prior to the first half of 1995 was in half-micron technology, which became obsolete in the past year," Hutcheson said. <snip> Applied Materials Inc. is still expecting 10% overall market growth for 1998 in the wide range of fab tool segments that it serves. But "there is the possibility [that growth] might drop to 5% to 10% if the situation in Asia worsens," said Dan Maydan, president of the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company. In Korea, he said, "the first assumption is that capital spending will change very little because their first priority is the electronics industry and the semiconductor industry. Like everyone else, they must invest in new 0.25-micron equipment if they want to stay in the game." Other chip equipment industry leaders agree. They feel certain Korea and the Far East will weather the rough times with support from the U.S. and Europe. "I don't think the United States will let those countries collapse," said Papken S. Der Torossian, chairman and CEO of Silicon Valley Group Inc. in San Jose. "I would expect a temporary lull in buying patterns in Korea, and then they will retool for new technology and quarter-micron production." Der Torossian remains bullish about 1998. He expects to see a 15%-to-20% growth rate for the entire semiconductor equipment market, but in the advanced technology segments he's forecasting an increase of 40% and 50% in capital spending. As the bulk of the chip industry moves over to 0.25-micron, it will put new pressure on leading manufacturers to migrate to 0.18 micron, said Terry R. Gibson, vice president and chief financial officer at GaSonics International Corp. in San Jose. "We already see a number of our customers well underway in pursuing 0.18-micron programs," he said. As feature sizes shrink below 0.25 micron, more mask layers are used, and this means additional cleaning steps and more complex chemistries in the etching of side walls for finer geometries, Gibson added.