Baird: For what ever it is worth. There are some interesting points. I believe next week it should read a bit differently.
Stock Analysis of Cymer Inc.
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Cymer Inc. from VectorVest ProGraphics. The ticker
symbol for Cymer Inc. is CYMI. CYMI is traded on the NASDAQ and options are available on
this stock.
PRICE: CYMI closed on 30-Jan-1998 at $16.60 per share.
VALUE: CYMI has a Value of $27.50 per share. Value is the foundation of the VectorVest
system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings
growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial performance. Current interest
and inflation rates also play an important role in the computation of Value. When interest and/or
inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes
down. Sooner or later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): CYMI has an RV of 1.57. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 1.57 is
excellent. RV reflects the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock compared to an
alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings above 1.00 have
attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00 when its Value is greater
than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are above
average. In some cases, however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well
below Price. This happens when a stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and an
above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is currently selling at a premium, and
the investor is banking on future earnings growth to drive the stock's price higher. This information
is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation
potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low
P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above average capital
gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): CYMI has an RS rating of 0.89. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of
0.89 is poor. VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is
buying stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to
the company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and operating performance, stock
price appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in the evaluation of Relative
Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors
are also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.
A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks.
A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): CYMI has an RT rating of 0.40. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of
0.40 is very poor. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the
direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then
reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock. Once a stock's Price has
established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term. If the trend
dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price change dramatically, RT will notice the
crucial turning point. When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00, the stock's Price is in an
uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): CYMI has a VST-Vector rating of 1.03. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an
VST of 1.03 is fair. VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing.
Stocks with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks with low RV and RS values have
high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this problem. It
combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest
database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of Value, Safety and
Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): CYMI has a GRT of 33 % per year. This is excellent. GRT stands for
forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock.
Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If the
GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently
fall.
Recommendation (REC): CYMI has a Sell recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative
effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help
investors buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky,
overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is approximately 10% above
a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high.
High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered from receiving "S"
RECs.
STOP-PRICE: CYMI has a Stop-Price of $17.50 per share. This is $0.90 or 5.4% above its
current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and
Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week
moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is above its
Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): CYMI does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on annual,regular, cash
dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments,
stock dividends, etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): CYMI has a DY of 0.0 percent. This is below the current market
average of 1.3 percent. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): CYMI has an EY of 5.41%. This is above the current market average of
5.27%. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): CYMI has an EPS of $0.90 per share. EPS stands for leading 12
months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent
earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): CYMI has a P/E ratio of 18.49. This ratio is computed daily
based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): CYMI has a GPE of 1.78. This ratio suggests that This ratio
suggests that CYMI is undervalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation
which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is
considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa. VectorVest
believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 1.57 for CYMI is
excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): CYMI has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is poor. DS is
defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at
higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 are
above average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): CYMI does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the VectorVest system
that pay dividends are classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks
with DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are classified as having LOW
or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are below average in safety and are
classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): CYMI has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend Growth is a subtle
yet important indicator of a company's historical financial performance and the board's current
outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): CYMI has a YSG-Vector of 0.00. On a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector rating of 0.00 is very poor. VectorVest combines Dividend
YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter. YSG-Vector allows direct comparison
of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector values have the best
combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above
average current income and long-term growth.
VOL(100)s: CYMI traded 3705000 shares on 30-Jan-1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: CYMI has an Average Volume of 777472. Average Volume is 50 day
moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: CYMI had a Volume change of 376.5% from its 50 day moving average volume.
OPEN: CYMI opened trading at $16.80 per share on 30-Jan-1998.
HIGH: CYMI traded at a high of $17.30 per share on 30-Jan-1998.
LOW: CYMI traded at a low of $16.40 per share on 30-Jan-1998.
CLOSE: CYMI Closed trading at $16.60 per share on 30-Jan-1998.
% PRC: CYMI showed a Price change of 8.5% from the prior day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: CYMI has been assigned to the Electronic (Laser Systems) Group. VectorVest
classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
CYMI has below average safety with well above average upside potential. It reflects a stock
which is likely to give well above average, inconsistent returns over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent
investors buy enough high Relative Value, high Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and
RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down
and your investment performance will improve. Not a bad combination.
TG |
