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Non-Tech : Hvide Marine HMAR - High Growth, Undervalued -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John S. Sturges who wrote (232)	2/1/1998 9:25:00 AM
From: Thomas C. Donald	Respond to of 547

John: So you are with CIBC Oppenheimer and its position on HMAR is: "It will be very difficult for them to double their business in '98 without acquisitions and they need a stock over $30shr and climbing to do this. Thus a downgrade." Thanks for the statement. That explains everything.

To: John S. Sturges who wrote (232)	2/1/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: Robert T. Quasius	Respond to of 547

I recall that at the CC, Erik Hvide mentioned that nearly all of their boats are relatively new. Thus, pricing pressure from an improved demand/supply ratio would impact their competitors more. I would also be curious to know where Tidewater is with their boats. Perhaps they have more older obsolescent boats and have more to fear from new boats coming right out of shipyards. I share Oppenheimer's concerns about Hvide's stock price. Hvide is on an acquisition binge, which for a time can be fueled with debt equities, but before long only equity offerings will do the job. The solution lies in the Street recognizing that the supply boat business isn't weakening, despite what TDW might have said. It is significant that most of the new supply boats coming on the market are already under contract. In effect, these boats are already a part of the supply/demand picture, and really don't change the economics. Hvide also said that they felt confident that the increasing demand could readily absorb the new boats. I think TDW was just shooting a turdball accross the bows of upstarts HMAR and TMAR, who were both planning equity offerings but are now postponing. TDW isn't planning any equity offerings, so doesn't have to face the consequences of their comments. As for conspiracies, I don't believe that for a moment. That's a little too far fetched for me.

To: John S. Sturges who wrote (232)	2/1/1998 10:02:00 AM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 547

You postition has changed a bit in 5 days. Message 3275049 I agreee that raising equity to fund the acquisitons is delayed, but it seems to me that counting the preferred as debt and playing that up in the write-up is a bit of a stretch since the convert price is $28+. It will be very difficult for them to double their business in '98 without acquisitions.. In your new report, you have thier revenue at $408 million in 1998. 1997 was $210 million. Seems about double to me. How much in acquisition do they need to hit the $400 million? Let me try... Kirby is said to add $24 Million and the other is $90 Million. Were are over $300 million. Have new boats coming on line.

To: John S. Sturges who wrote (232)	2/2/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: Thomas C. Donald	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 547

John: You said that the position of your company, CIBC Oppenheimer, on HMAR is: "It will be very difficult for them to double their business in '98 without acquisitions and they need a stock over $30shr and climbing to do this. Thus a downgrade." I just talked to Investor Relations at HMAR and was assured that the $284 million Care Group acquisition is being completed as planned, even with Oppenheimer's downgrade. It appears that your strategy will not be successful with HMAR. Your cash flow projections might even turn out to be more conservative than you intended.