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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2193)	2/1/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: Kurthend	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Picked this up on the following thread: Message 3314089 Notes taken from the RDRT CC. Below is part of the CC notes. <<<<<Shipped 1.6 million MR head stacks in Q1, an increase of 1 million from the 600 thousand shipped in the prior quarter. Had two customers over 10%: (in alphabetical order) Maxtor and Western Digital. These two combined for 73% of revenue........Areal density continues to improve, no slow down is expected. This may have a tendancy to reduce heads per drive and platters per drive as the areal density increases more rapidly than users demands for storage capacity Competition - (CY) Mentioned IBM, TDK and Yamaha as key competitors......Revenue breakdown - MR was 45% in the quarter, 50% at the end of December. Shipped 1.6 million head stacks, up from 600K in previous quarter.....Q1 $261 Million (Actual) Q2 Down 10-20 % from Q1 Q3 Back up to Q1 levelQ4 and beyond - up from there.....IBM is both producing for in-house and is in the merchant market.....Expect 80% of Q2 revenue to be MR. Working on AMR (Advanced MR?) beyond 3 gbit/square inch.>>>>> PROS for INVX: 1. It states that RDRT's main competitors are IBM, TDK and Yamaha. YAMAHA is one of three top tiered customers of INVX and TDK is considered in the second tier of INVX's main customers. Although RDRT is also a 1st tier customer of INVX it looks like a no loose situation for INVX. 2. RDRT expects an increase of 1 million head stacks over previious qtr. Does INVX sell to Maxtor or WDC? 3. RDRT expects 80% MR by 2nd qtr (Up from 50% in Dec; also WDC has stated in DEC 20% MR, Mar expect 40%, and Jun expect 80%+). CONS: 1. Tendency to reduce heads per drive due to areal density. 2. IBM is in the merchant market. I am not sure exactly what this means. NEUTRAL 1. RDRT expects 2nd qtr to be down, level in 3rd qtr and up in 4th qtr. I think everone already knows this. INVX during their cc mentioned they expect flat to lower profits in 2nd qtr over 1st qtr. Based on last week it looks as though the dd industry may have about hit bottom or at least near the bottom. With trailing PEs now higher due to the most recent earnings reports from all of the dd makers, maybe INVX's stock price will rise in accordance. I guess Wall Street is looking at 6 months out or longer. Wish I wasn't so much in margin or I would buy some dd companies. INVX appears to be the only hdd maker or component maker to have made money (appreciable) in the qtr ending Dec. In fact, a 15-20% increase in earnings over the qtr a year ago. An amazing feat in my opinion. The transition to MR is in IMO helping INVX out dramatically in this current downcycle and should continue to help throughout this calendar year. Take care, Kurt