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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (13697)	2/1/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: Jack Clarke	Respond to of 18056

Bonnie, >> If we see a massive increase in unemployment later this year as a result of Asia-related business contractions, I think we will see the flood of money slow down. People will use their 401K money to live on when they become unemployed, I suspect we will see this. You and I are pretty much on the same wavelength. But AG, Rubin, and Mr. C. are presumably all aware of that scenario as well. What do you think they will or can do to keep the bubble expanding? We know they want to do so, because it would (or perhaps will) be political disaster when/if the bull expires. The average person still doesn't understand that the second part of an investment is the sale of it, that is, of course, unless you are receiving those barbaric and anachronistic payments known as dividends. I guess another question I keep asking is what event, if anything, can keep the pols from prolonging the life of el Toro? Jack

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (13697)	2/1/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

Boomer Bubble I like the feedback here so far compared to over a year ago elsewhere. For the benefit of those not interested I will try to start with the subject so others can pass if not interested. Bonnie, I agree completely. Your point is a keystone of my thoughts. The tax laws have changed and people are investing their own money and making their own decisions. We all have to do it in order to not pay such high taxes on discretionary income. I just moved from CA in 1994 and felt I was "house poor" the entire time, even though my net worth was inching up (actually roaring up during the housing boom, but that's ancient history now). Further, I say that people look at their investment options and they choose the ones that show the best returns. Duhh!!!!! Nobody from the 401(k) management firms tell people to watch out because norms of investment returns WILL RETURN - MEANING THAT THESE FUNDS WILL DROP IN VALUE AT SOME FUTURE TIME. They all say that there is risk, but they are also well trained by their lawyers and know how to say risk without ordinary people always knowing what they are saying. They are sales people, so what do you expect them to say? Could you imagine any financial management representative telling you that you would be better off NOT investing with them? Of course they want to manage your money. But if you determine that gold is where to be, you are OUT OF LUCK because your 401(k) options are limited to 1-2 growth funds, 1-2 equity income funds, a lousy bond fund and the money market fund. (Gold is just an arbitrary example. Substitute your favorite option.) You can not directly buy bonds through these programs. You can not hedge in gold or real estate. You can't start your own business with your retirement funds. When you look at the potential returns, there really is only stocks. To have real choices you need non-401(k)/IRA money. Since I am at the leading edge of the boomer generation, having hit the big 50 I can see where the "boomer bubble" in investment might be just beginning, in a relative (very long-term) sense. My worst nightmare is that, in their infinite wisdom, our Beltway leaders will manage to bail out the Asians (for now, in a way that makes people not realize it's their money - as usual) in addition to the bailing out of the Federal budget with Social Security trust funds only to see all of these pyramid schemes collapse at once on our children. Do we really know "how high is high"?? Ed Miller P.S. I don't want to see a market crash so that OTHERS suffer. I want to see sane market values and some pessimism return while the huge boomer population is still at work, because I feel that we have to be a big part of the solution (relating to the pyramid references above). We can be part of a solution only if we are still working and not when we are near the grave. This does not reflect on the quality of the younger generation - it's just the numbers.

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (13697)	2/1/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

RE: "Reasonable valuations: many people I know are still putting that 15% into index funds. Scary, huh?" I could understand your statement if you replaced the words "index funds" with the words "stock funds." However, I don't understand why you singled out index funds as being scary. The fact is that index funds outperform a vast majority of managed stock funds. It seems that investing in managed stock funds is more scary than index funds. Best wishes, I2