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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (15228)	2/1/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Clark, Re: The last true cycle was like a river during the dry season, but this 'cycle' is more like an artificial dam put across the river upstream. When it goes it is really going to be a flood. The question is when will the dam reach critical mass and break? The 1st 0.25uM products are just starting to be released in limited quantities so there is no real surge to purchase a commodity that isn't available yet. Chip prices are very cheap at 0.35uM and above and until the prices for 0.25uM are 25-50% cheaper than current available products and offer 50% more functionality then the market will still buy the current products for a while longer until the economics of scale make it necessary to upgrade their purchases to use the new technology. I see critical mass occurring sometime around Oct/Nov/Dec this year as leading edge fabs get to full 0.25uM production capability. Just my opinion, BB