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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13732)	2/1/1998 2:50:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill; Are you still TAing indexes ? I know it don't work on indexes worth a flip. ( exception would be if it is confirmed by other indicators ) but as a stand alone it's garbage. It's to easy to fit past data to patterns and come up with what will look like it works. The index itself can lie about the money flow..large volume inside of it may go to the losers or winners, while the price moves can go the other way on small volume thus skewing the index oppoisite the money flow, it's in the nature of an Index that makes the TA on it unreliable, at least as a leading indicator. I can make up a dart board that one can toss darts at for market calls, 10 white squares for every 9 black ones, with white indicating up, and you will average about 50% right just tossing the darts. Toss a whole handfull every day and average them and predict the percetage move each day. ( LOL ) <g> Jim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13732)	2/1/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, may I offer my two cents? Seasonely the market is up first week of February. Bulishness is again rampant, SE Asia is out of sight from a media point of view, and for Joe Six Pack the crisis is over. We are also entering IRA season and January was a coutios month. Way back you were speaking of an "upwards crash" well, higher lows with steady highs only point to an upward move and a strong one. Irrational YES, impossible NO! Reversal from there may be by second week of March. Remember history repeats itself, last year we peaked in February intermidiate, and I speculte same this time. BWDIK Haim