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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (7056)2/1/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: PaulM  Respond to of 116764
 
Bobby, don't know much about Mexico or Canada except that Rubin & Co. are understandably concerned about currency crises spreading to our back yard and to major trading partners.

But IMO there are so many potential implications of Asia for the U.S. People generally just focus on the most direct. A couple are.....

1. The Japanese bought lots of U.S./ Canadian real estate. What happens when they sell and prices go down? What about private loans in the U.S. for commercial real estate ventures?

2. The Japanese also invested in some U.S. stock, though as A. Cohen noted $ denominated assets haven't always had a terrific reputation. Have they sold or been selling?

3. Will the collapsing curencies result in a flood of cheap goods into the U.S. and will our businesses be able to compete? To say that we rely on the Japanese for production rather than a market begs the question of whether we will be able to compete in our own market.
4. Most of the world's largest banks are Japanese. When analysts say our exposure to Asia, and vice versa, isn't enormous you can bet their excluding Japan.