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To: Richard Russell who wrote (27519)	2/1/1998 3:01:00 PM
From: Scotsman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

I don't know about Vanguard, but my arguement about Asia has never been that they will stop making chips or memory. It's that they are stopping expansion in chips and memory. No more new plants, or at least no greenfield ones. I will be the first to admit that current capacity is more than enough to meet current demand. But what about a year from now? or two years from now? I look at this as a buying op for the long term. Prices should stabalize over the next 12 to 24 months, and I don't think we have to worry about Asia's tendency to keep pumping money into money losing fabs as they have in the past because they haven't any money left to do it. This leaves outside investors, and they aren't going to put money into a money loser, so existing capacity is pretty much it. Demand should continue to climb, so prices should start to head up. One thing that has been overlooked is that a lot of companies that have been under this overcapacity have worked very hard to cut costs. When these prices stabalize and start to go up, they should reap very good margins. JMO