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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13709)	2/1/1998 6:30:00 PM
From: edward miller	Respond to of 18056

Yes, years ago I recall reading that the Dow has correctly forecast 13 of the last 9 recessions <vbg>. Another such forecast would be beneficial in unwinding excess valuations. IMHO, of course.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13709)	2/1/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Respond to of 18056

(snip) The reason for my lower rates forecast is lower inflation (due to imported actual deflation), and a move by the FED's to lower the discount rate (as AG said, our monetary policy last year was "restrictive") to counter excess strength in the dollar and prevent a recession in 1999. (snip) Does anybody care about the discount rate? Is anything tied to the discount rate anymore? When banks finally start lowering their home equity and auto loan rates, which I beleive are tied to Prime, then we will know a reccession is imminent. But then, it will be too late, and Greenspan will already have retired. He knows he has just been lucky and that the US economy has been booming for every other reason than his expert manipulation of the discount rate.