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Strategies & Market Trends : TRIPLE TRADES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Birdieking who wrote (348)	1/16/2021 10:32:09 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4397

Hi BK, That's my count as well. March of 2020 was the end of a big and long commodity ABC corrective wave. We have begun a new commodity Super cycle. It is seen in precious metals, industrial metals, grains and yup crude oil. EV's replacing ICE is a myth. The 2030 Paris agreement hopes for 30% of cars sold in 2030 will be electric. The market share for 2020 actually declined on a global level - due to the pandemic. It was hoped to be 3 % and ended up at 2.5%. Here's the recent expectations which are optimistic due to a lack of infrastructure: Deloitte expects that by 2030 China will hold 49 per cent of the global EV market, Europe will account for 27 per cent, and the United States will hold 14 per cent. The share of new car sales taken up by EVs will vary considerably across markets (see figure 3). We forecast China to achieve a domestic market share of around 48 per cent by 2030 – almost double that of the United States (27 per cent), and Europe should achieve 42 per cent. But this doesn’t tell the whole story. Growth in Northern and Western Europe is expected to outstrip that in Southern and Eastern Europe as wealthier countries (such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Nordic countries) likely invest more in infrastructure and offer greater cash and tax incentives to accelerate initial growth. EV growth beyond 2030Beyond 2030, we expect the rate of growth in EV sales to slow. Some markets will be unable to support the transition to EVs in the same way that wealthier nations will over the next decade. Consider that, beyond 2030, one of the key factors in sustaining growth will be the implementation of suitable charging infrastructure. This requires multi-billion-dollar capital investments – achievable in some markets through a combination of public and private investment, but unlikely to be achieved uniformly around the world. In countries that cannot invest in charging infrastructure, we expect the market for ICE vehicles to remain for some time. So as the emerging market grows in population the demand for plastics grows at 150% of that rate. With that population growth demand for food will grow. Who and how will these people be fed when fertilizers are outlawed - yup they are made from fossil fuels - food inflation and famine are fairly reliable reasons that environmentalists dreams will be curbed. It's all physics and CVX/XOM are quite well entrenched in downstream products beyond refineries, especially XOM. When crude hit a negative number last year, Capex was slashed by ALL. Well depletion rates generally decline at 5 %. Couple that with BK's and capex reduction along with crude consumption reverting to normalcy and we'll see both XOM and CVX margins return to historic levels. Some even say a shortage will be created. If so that makes the two greatest benefactors to be: The Saudi's The largest developers of The Permian shale deposits which can come on quickly when supply shortages occur = CVX and XOM. The complete elimination of fossil fuels by 2050 is a pipedream. Aint'a gonna happen. Pass the bong please. Hoping we're in your 2 wave now. The last of the bargain basement prices coming up folks. Bob Bob