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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chichi who wrote (8663)	2/2/1998 5:06:00 PM
From: steve goldman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11057

Noone is putting down the thoughts of others. What makes the market exciting is its incredibly dynamic nature and that it often does exactly the opposite of what you might expect it to do. Noone is convinced that things are rosy for WDC or any other hard drive maker. Look at QNTM. They are already 26%ish debt and they will run into the same problems as wdc. My point in disagreeing with Jon, was 1) name calling someone a blind bull is simply immature and below the intellectual dialogue of this thread, 2) he was telling someone they had it all backwards and questioned which conference call they listend to when the stock clearly had something else in mind being up 1 3/8 on the day when the market was down. As far my comment about "talking down the stock", while I was somewhat kidding, it holds true. The stock had run very nicely over the past few weeks, earnings came out and they were talking about the stock beating number, being up 1 1/2 the next day. I mean exactly what I had said, that talking down the stock won't get it there. There are only four investors on this thread, the longs, the shorts, potential investors on either side and simply those surfing around. I think my observation of that individual, i don't recall if it was you or someelse, was right on the money. Call a bull a bull and a bear a bear. There are absolute clear answers toanything the market or stocks do. When you think something should go flat up, it sometimes goes down and vice versa. Re: Negative outlook - clearly the stock has negatives to it. If it didn't it wouldn't still be within points of a year low. Cash position will be one as well as inventory channels. I have presented my opinion of the stock fairly, with my analysis of the fact patterns as I see them. Ultimately you need to find quality investments that can earn you money long term. Short term, in any stock, anything is possible. I have positions in WLA that was I holding long and sold calls against when it rallied from 105 to 125 in about three weeks. That it then shot up another 30+points in two weeks, means that selling calls for 8 that eventually went to 25 means I missed out on some profits. Ultimately, I am looking for opportunities that I think can perform in the next 12 to 18 months. I think WDC is a strong company with great management, a beautiful balance sheet, strong product mix, getting stronger with higher end products and greater efficiencies in lower end products, and even better management. I would invest in the company solely based oN Haggerty's experience and his ability to squeeze every last dollar from a company's SGA. The great thing about this game is it is not zero sum. For a few weeks, those long have been doing better, yet today the shorts have won a battle. I wish you the best luck in your short. I hope that it work with your time frame. If you were looking for a short term short than you would have prospered today yet if you are looking to see this stock lower in 12 to 18 months, I would suggest against it. Strong business model, increasing share in more profitable upperend bsuienss, increasing share in mid and lower mr business with desktops, decreasing costs and increasing efficiencies in q3 and q4 and the potential for a turn in demand/supply cycle, could lead to a strong fy98. Ultimately, I believe WDC long holders will win the war. Regards, Steve@yamner.com