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Technology Stocks : Netscape -- Giant Killer or Flash in the Pan? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: literaryfx who wrote (2212)	2/1/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: Jim Lou	Respond to of 4903

Ken, let me add a reason for not shorting Netscape: it could be bought out any moment, by virtually [if I may] anybody at this price level.

To: literaryfx who wrote (2212)	2/1/1998 7:08:00 PM
From: Leo Francis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

Can anybody, justify with fundamentals, the current value, and any predicted increase in value? Show me the business model and profit model. If somebody buys today, (1.4-1.5 billion market cap pricing), this investor only makes money if NSCP's market cap increases to MORE than 1.4-1.5 billion. Simple.-g- With revenues declining, and profits not materializing, HOW will NSCP increase revenues, and return to profitability? During the conference call, NSCP management could not even answer this question with specifics. They only talked about the cost side. I think most investors expected NSCP to reach 1.0 billion in sales by 1999. I know I did, up unitl their warning. That now looks like an impossibility. Until the fundamentals change, the stock will be under extreme pressure. Short interest dropped to 5.0 million shares in Jan., from 5.5 million in Dec., a decrease of 500,000 shares. It should be noted that the drop in Short Interest represented only a 9% reduction in short interest. Not very much, and is not indictative of a belief that "all the bad news is out." Remember, valuation is key know. Please keep some perspective. NSCP revenues for 1998 will be only 400-450 million! 1998 earnings estimates are breakeven to -(.06). 1999 high earnings estimates are about .30-.35! So, even with a PE of 30 for 1999 earnings, you get a valuation of 9-10.50! Management has yet to lay out its "new revenue and profit plan". Believe me, I welcome any fundamental long arguments. To date I have not seen one. Good Trading, LF