To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (1229 ) 2/1/1998 6:33:00 PM From: Don Green Respond to of 1756
Morgan's Biggs sees global bear market -- Barron's NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley Asset Management chairman Barton Biggs said there is a global bear market for stocks, but Asia's stock markets will outperform Europe and the United States, he told Barron's. ''I still believe that we are in a global market, but we are going to have a respite here,'' Biggs told the financial weekly about the Japanese stock market. ''An in the next stage of this bear market, Asia is going to outperform Europe and the United States.'' Biggs cautioned, however, ''I'm not convinced that Asia can't absolutely outperform.'' ''Don't forget, the U.S. and Europe have been going sideways or up as Asia was getting crushed. So it isn't unrealistic to think Asia could go sideways if the U.S. and Europe get crushed,'' he was quoted as saying in the February 2 edition. Biggs, whose Morgan Stanley Asset Management invests $150 billion around the world, has warmed about Japanese stocks, but believes that Japanese Government bonds (JGBs) are going to drop in value, he told the paper. He also said stock markets rallies in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand ''are not out of the question.'' ''The JGBs definitely are a short. Maybe the best in the world,'' Biggs told Barrons. ''But everyone's broken their axe against that immovable object so far.'' Biggs, who said the firm has doubled its commitment to Japanese stocks, said Japanese stocks are undervalued and that the Nikkei index could rise to the 18,000 to 20,000 range from its present 16,628.47 by the end of March. ''Then you'll have to take a real look and see whether they have made substantive changes, like cutting taxes and allowing the bad banks to fail,'' Biggs told Barron's as part of its Roundtable '98 series with portfolio managers. If taxes are cut and bad banks are allowed to fail, that could be a sign that Japan has changed its economy, Biggs added. ''In fact, no bond in the history of the world has ever sold at the kind of coupons - interest rates - that these Japanese government bonds are selling at,'' Biggs was quoted as saying. ''The interest rate on the 10-year, which is now about 1.55 percent, I can imagine going to three percent or four percent in 18 months,'' he said.