SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (167526)1/25/2021 6:40:09 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218019
 
by now many if not most have read reports on what Dalio had noted

I clip copy paste here for thread memory

zerohedge.com

Ray Dalio: "We Are On The Brink Of A Terrible Civil War"It was over a decade ago that we first warned the Fed's unconstrained monetary lunacy will eventually result in civil war, a prediction for which Time magazine, which back then was still somewhat relevant, mocked us. This is what Time's Stephen Gendel said in October 2010:

What is the most likely cause of civil unrest today? Immigration. Gay marriage. Abortion. The results of Election Day. The mosque at Ground Zero. Nope.

Try the Federal Reserve. Nov. 3 is when the Federal Reserve’s next policy committee meeting ends, and if you thought this was just another boring money meeting you would be wrong. It could be the most important meeting in the Fed’s history, maybe. The U.S. central bank is expected to announce its next move to boost the faltering economic recovery. To say there has been considerable debate and anxiety among Fed watchers about what the central bank should do would be an understatement. Chairman Ben Bernanke has indicated in recent speeches that the central bank plans to try to drive down already low interest rates by buying up long-term bonds. A number of people both inside the Fed and out believe this is the wrong move. But one website seems to indicate that Ben’s plan might actually lead to armed conflict. Last week, a post on the blog Zero Hedge said ... that the Fed’s plan is not only moronic, but “positions US society one step closer to civil war if not worse.”

* * * * *

The problem is that the Fed directly sets only short-term interest rates. And they are already about as close to zero as you can go. That’s why Bernanke has been talking about something called “quantitative easing.” That’s when the Fed basically creates money to buy the long-term bonds that it doesn’t directly control and drives down those interest rates as well. That should further reduce the cost of borrowing for large companies and homeowners. Some people are calling this “QE2” because the Fed made a similar move during the height of the financial crisis when it bought mortgage bonds. (See photos of the Tea Party movement)

Not everyone agrees this is a good move. In fact, a number of presidents of regional Fed banks, not all of which get to vote at Fed policy meetings, have recently come out against Bernanke’s plan. Some say it sets bad policy. Others think it will stoke inflation, which might be the point. Few, though, have warned of armed conflict. Here’s how Zero Hedge justifies its prediction of why the Fed’s Nov. 3 meeting will lead to violence:

In a very real sense, Bernanke is throwing Granny and Grandpa down the stairs – on purpose. He is literally threatening those at the lower end of the economic strata, along with all who are retired, with starvation and death, and in a just nation where the rule of law controlled instead of being abused by the kleptocrats he would be facing charges of Seditious Conspiracy, as his policies will inevitably lead to the destruction of our republic.

O.K. The idea that Bernanke might kill large swaths of low-income neighborhoods or Florida by his plan to further lower interest rates is a little ridiculous. But there is a point in Zero Hedge’s crazy. Lower rates do tend to favor borrowers over savers. And the largest borrowers in the country are banks, speculators and large corporations. The largest spenders in the U.S., though, tend to be individuals. Consumer spending makes up 70% of the economy. And the vast majority of consumers are on the low end of the income scale. So I think it is a valid question to ask whether the Fed’s desire to drive down interest rates at all costs is working. Companies are already borrowing at low rates. They are just not spending. (Read a special report on the financial crisis blame game)

That being said, civil war, probably not. “It is a gross exaggeration,” says Allan Meltzer, who is a top Fed historian at Carnegie Mellon. “I cannot recall ever learning about riots or civil war even when the Fed made other mistakes.”

All this happened more than a decade ago - since then we have seen not only QE2, but "Twist", QE3, "NOT QE", and eventually QEternity last March which mutated into outright and unlimited helicopter money to pay for universal basic income - and while at the time it merely added to our "reputation" of a tinfoil conspiracy blog, it appears we were (sadly) correct again based not only on the increasing tears within the US social fabric which culminated in unprecedented riots and looting last summer and continued social upheavals in recent months, but also in terms of what one of the biggest investing minds of this generation just tweeted. We are referring to Bridgewater founder and billionaire Ray Dalio, who moments ago tweeted that we are "on the brink of a terrible civil war".

Here is what Dalio just said:

Back in February, I said I wanted a president who could “bring together our country to face our challenges in a more united and less divisive way.”

I wanted someone who would unite people – i.e. who does not view themselves as the leader of the winning side imposing policies the other side would find intolerable.

I believe we are on the brink of a terrible civil war (as I described in The Changing World Order series), where we are at an inflection point between entering a type of hell of fighting or pulling back to work together for peace and prosperity that addresses the big wealth, values, and opportunity gaps we’re now seeing. For that reason I was thrilled to hear what President Biden said at his inauguration. It is consistent with the direction history has shown the country needs to move in.

Now the question is whether the president and both parties will bring that about. Good words and spirit aren’t enough. People will have to agree on both how to grow the pie and how to divide it well. That will require revolutionary change.

Doing it peacefully requires both bipartisanship and skill. It won’t be easy. Our country is still in a terrible financial state and terribly divided.

While Dalio correctly points out the extremely precarious spot where splintered US society stands right now, it is again disappointing that instead of admitting the true poison eating away at the heart of US society, Dalio once again refers to the symptom - the presidency - and not the underlying diseases that brought it on. We are confident that it has to do with the fact that the well-being of Dalio's own fortune is heavily reliant on not kicking the hornets' nest of catastrophic monetary policy, but merely diverting attention to whatever is the media taking point bulletin du jour, in this case the ongoing Trump vs Biden narrative clash.

We can only hope that one day Dalio will have the guts to tell the truth about why we are indeed "on the brink of a terrible civil war" and expose the real criminals behind the deadly divisions tearing apart US society.




To: Maurice Winn who wrote (167526)1/25/2021 8:24:32 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218019
 
Unclear of eventual outcome, but supposedly bad, that ...

Believe Economist typically twisted the truth to suit itself, leading its readers up the path, but lets watch & brief ...

Such appeals are also accompanied by more sinister methods. Soon after Mr Xi’s rise to power, officials were summoned to secret briefings about a party circular called “Document Number Nine”. The directive banned schools from teaching seven Western concepts, such as constitutional democracy, universal values, civil society and a free press. This had a big impact on universities as centres of student activism and political debate.

economist.com

Patriotism and the party How nationalism is shaping China’s young

They feel more defensive than ever of their country’s achievements

Jan 21st 2021

YAN’AN, A MINING town of 2m people in Shaanxi province, is not the stuff of tourism brochures. Yet 50m Chinese come here on China’s “red tourism” trail every year. The area’s historical sites are among a hundred or so that have been spruced up to celebrate the communist past. Yan’an was the wartime stronghold of the communists under Mao Zedong from 1937 until shortly before they seized power in 1949. In those years, many youths streamed to Yan’an to join Mao’s cause. Today, they flock in still.

Listen to this storyEnjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.

Close to one in two red-tourism trips are made by Chinese under 30, says Ctrip, China’s biggest travel firm. Young party members go to Yan’an to tour the caves that Mao plotted in. They end with renewed communist pledges or a boisterous rendition of “The East is Red”. Students complete compulsory courses on party history and ideology that may involve a night in a cave. They cheerfully don replica pastel-blue army uniforms and red-starred caps, swinging satchels stamped with Mao’s face.

Qing Wenhui, a 23-year-old trainee guide, says many young Chinese are “deeply stirred” by their visits. They quiz her on the hardships Mao endured (she knows to ignore questions about his mistresses). A romp round the caves and a peek at Mao’s wooden bathtub inspire more than textbooks, she says. A young maths teacher says he has come to grasp “how the Communist Party rose up” from these hills. “Never forget where you started, right?” he says with a grin, quoting a mantra of Xi Jinping’s.

Mr Xi wants to bolster faith in the party’s rule among the young. They feel none of the emotional attachment to it that their elders did. They have known neither famine nor crushing poverty. The state no longer has the hold over their lives that it did for their parents, when jobs, schooling, housing and health care were dispensed by danwei (work units) that would monitor them for signs of political waywardness. Four in five students are members of the Communist Youth League, which can be joined at 14 and be a launchpad to party membership at 18. But most see this as a mere résumé booster. Jobs in state-owned firms and the government often require it. Startup founders join the party to demonstrate political correctness (Jack Ma of Alibaba, an entrepreneur who inspires many youngsters, is a member).

In 2019 Mr Xi said the party had to “win over vast numbers of youth” to ensure its cause passes “from one generation to the next”. It has tried to do this by instilling patriotism at school, cultivating new youth appeal online and stepping up censorship. The result is a generation of youths that consumes vast amounts of foreign pop culture and fashion, yet feels more defensive than ever of China’s achievements. Plenty shell out for imported goodies. But more display their patriotism by wearing fast-improving local brands, from sportswear by Li-Ning, a brand owned by a former Olympic gymnast, to lipstick by Perfect Diary, a cosmetics firm.

This pleases Mr Xi, who has urged youths to show that national pride is “not a mere slogan”. Ask youngsters what they think of propaganda posters plastered everywhere, and many roll their eyes. Yet one line resonates: that the communists rescued China from a “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers that began with the Opium war of 1839. Only by standing up to the West, the message goes, can China rise again.

Young Chinese often support boycotts against foreign brands and sports teams seen to have insulted China. Transgressions include maps of China that exclude Taiwan or show Hong Kong as a separate region. In 2019 so many fashion houses came under fire that the hashtag #LuxuryBrandsApologyDay went viral on Weibo. Anger erupted when Daryl Morey, manager of the Houston Rockets, a National Basketball Association (NBA) team, tweeted support for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters. The backlash cost the NBA $400m in lost revenue. State television did not air its games for a full year.

Almost all Chinese oppose independence for Taiwan and Hong Kong. Still, the NBA’s 500m Chinese fans were torn: wanting to defend their country’s sovereignty, yet upset at missing the games. It is often hard to tell if pressure for boycotts comes from netizens or party mouthpieces. In October a state-media offensive against BTS, a popular K-pop band, for a perceived insult to China’s role in the Korean war, fizzled out as outlets quietly deleted BTS-bashing articles. This suggests that party-run media are keen to show they are in touch with youngsters, too.

Another tactic is to seem more hip. “Socialism is Kind of Cool” is a game show about Mr Xi’s life. Rap videos sing the party’s praises. It also adopts teen lingo. To elders, China is the “motherland”; to their children it is a zhong gege, or “big brother China”—the implication being it must be loved without question. The relationship between party and netizen is framed as one of idol and fan, fostering a new emotional connection to young people, says Liu Shih-Diing of the University of Macau.

The East is pinkSuch appeals are also accompanied by more sinister methods. Soon after Mr Xi’s rise to power, officials were summoned to secret briefings about a party circular called “Document Number Nine”. The directive banned schools from teaching seven Western concepts, such as constitutional democracy, universal values, civil society and a free press. This had a big impact on universities as centres of student activism and political debate.

Consider the gap in experience between students born in the 1990s and those born in the 1980s. When Weibo was launched in 2009, many saw free expression flourish. But after uproar over a deadly train crash in 2011, censors clamped down. Fang Kecheng, a former journalist who studied at Peking University in 2004-10, says his “generational memory” is of swapping forbidden clips of the Tiananmen protests of 1989. Others recall experiences surfing Google, watching foreign documentaries on YouTube and chatting on Facebook. By 2010 those websites could no longer be accessed on China’s internet. Nobody born after 1992 could use Google, which left China after refusing to filter its search engine—though many young people interviewed for this report said they use virtual private networks to get on Instagram, Facebook or Twitter. Since 2015 many universities have set up departments to oversee teachers’ political thinking. First-year students at three-dozen of them now take a new mandatory course on Xi Jinping Thought, alongside long-standing compulsory ones on Marx and Mao.

By the time they get to university, students have already been primed by years of patriotic education at school. It was ramped up after Tiananmen, which party leaders saw as a failure of indoctrination. Greater emphasis was placed on China’s past humiliation by foreigners. In 2004 new politics textbooks at secondary schools aimed to form a “correct worldview”. A paper published in the Journal of Political Economy in 2017 duly found that students began to hold more favourable opinions of the regime, and less positive ones of democracy and free markets.

Another party tactic is to shape online discussion. Jennifer Pan of Stanford University finds that government-run social-media accounts post as much clickbait as do those of celebrities. Censors allow talk about topics on which they think most netizens will side with the government, finds Yiqing Xu, also at Stanford, and put a stop to heated arguments that could rile people. This defter touch is giving many youngsters the false impression that China’s cyberspace is growing less, not more, restrictive.

The state also applauds influential bloggers who spew the party line (those who “write works of positive energy”). Among those it praises are a tribe called the xiao fenhong, or “little pink”, who appear to be mainly young women. One early attention-grabbing stunt was bombarding the Facebook page of Tsai Ing-wen, a China sceptic, with negative comments after Taiwan elected her president in 2016. Netizen-led pressure campaigns on Weibo to shut down accounts that post dissenting views are multiplying.

Netizens still find ways to express dissent. After the central government imposed a national-security law on Hong Kong in June 2020, books about it received a small flurry of one-star ratings on Douban, a review site. Last year a contestant on “Rap for Youth”, a popular reality show, posted an acrostic on Weibo that accused China’s media watchdog of censoring lyrics that denounced sexual harassment. But as jingoistic voices grow louder, it is harder to find thoughtful political discussions online. Netizens self-censor, or do not post. Yaqiu Wang at Human Rights Watch, born in the 1980s, says young people no longer hear from Chinese public intellectuals such as the lawyers and activists who inspired her. Many have been silenced or punished.

Much of what youth display is performative patriotism, because it is easier and safer to side with the loudest voice. In a 2015 study, Huang Haifeng of the University of California, Merced, argued that propaganda can deter dissent by demonstrating the power of the state. In a patriotic-education test, he found that students who did best were not only the most critical of the regime in private, but also the least likely to voice dissent publicly. Yet patriotism is motivated by more than party devotion. A sense of community, a need to let off steam and a desire to protest are part of the mix. But as the next part of this report shows, a coarsening of views of the outside world among young Chinese is unmistakable.¦

This article appeared in the Special report section of the print edition under the headline "Partygoers"



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (167526)1/27/2021 5:16:33 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218019
 
Re <<lost ... mind>>

lostness spreading, and fast

zerohedge.com

Modi Reform Backlash Sparks Chaos In New Delhi As Farmers Attack PoliceTens of thousands of angry farmers drove tractors and marched through India's capital on Tuesday.

According to Asian News International (ANI), New Delhi Police said, "protesters turned violent at some places. Many police personnel were injured & public properties also damaged."

Reuters tweeted a video showing farmers have gone mad in the capital. Police and farmers clashed during the Republic Day celebrations.

Farmers broke through police barricades and stormed the historic Red Fort, a historical fort in the city that served as the Mughal Emperors' primary residence. ANI shows farmers beating and tossing police off a wall.

Farmers attack a riot control vehicle.

Chaos.

"11th March 1783 the KHALSA flag was unfurled over the Red Fort, majestically at the APEX of the Lal Qila. THEN it signified the BEGINNING of the end for the Delhi Empire. What significance is this for today's FUTURE ?? TIME will tell....," one user said.

[url=][/url]

Here are more views of farmers storming the Red Fort.

[url=][/url]

One person compares the fort's storming to the recent riot at the US Capitol complex.

Farmers have stayed peaceful but today was absolute chaos. These folks are mad because of unfair farming legislation passed several months ago.

They allege Prime Minister Narendra Modi's farming law, which ends the government's programs to keep commodity prices at fixed levels, therefore allowing free markets to dictate prices, favors large corporations over mom and pop farmers.

There's no telling on when the unrest will end.