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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (10320)	2/1/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: Flan	Respond to of 95453

When did this news about Iraq petitioning for more oil sales hit the tape - I really do not see this happening especially given his recent spat with the UN. Is oil going down big on Monday ??? Please say it isn't so.

To: RGinPG who wrote (10320)	2/1/1998 8:35:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 95453

<TA on BB> Ron, I have experience in BB charting. Let me answer some of your questions. "Sharp price changes tend to occur after the bands tighten, as volatility lessens." On a relative basis yes. When the band tightens, it means the price movement up and down have been calmer than its previous period (say 2-4 weeks ago). As you and I know by just looking at the series of contracting and expanding bands since Nov, the statement makes sense. However, as I always like to caution, be aware of the background under which this pattern holds. The aforementioned pattern happened on a steady downtrend spanning three months (this is a completely bear period). Now that we are entering into February, I'm not convinced this downtrend and its characteristic predictability will repeat itself going forward. If we enter into a month like October where volatility is very high, this contraction-expansion pattern will not be very apparent. We may have big band throughout the month of Feb while prices gyrate up/down 30% three times. In my book the surest sign of a technical breakout is when the daily closing price catch the wave - either riding the upper band higher or lower band lower for 5-10 days. Obviously, this serves more of a confirmatory indication and says noting about the chances of its happening at the critical day. Which lead to your next question. But just a note before we go on, it is typically unwise to sell "too early" after 2-3 days into riding the upper wave. The wave tends to last more than 2-3 days until other oscilatory indicator such as the long stochastics go to the ceiling. "A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band. This observation is useful when projecting price targets." Well, how true. That is why when the stock price move from the lower band to the upper band, the day it reaches the upper band automatically becomes the critical day. For the drillers since Nov, it got slammed each and every time it managed to reach that critical level. The reverse is equally true in an up market. This would make the downside risk on most of these at 5% to 10%, and then a continuation of the reversal uptrend. I would not say that. It is wrong to use BB to quantify risk. moving average and trendlines are better tools to quantify risk levels. The reason it is wrong is because of riding the wave phenomenon. Also, we are dealing with moving average. When things begin to snowball, the rate of increase in risk is actually positive. I may have discussed other aspects of BB and stochastics and how they relate to the driller in the past but they are thousands of posts away. I didn't know SI allow one to send private mail until the one from you. Since the questions are the same, I'll not reply to that mail.

To: RGinPG who wrote (10320)	2/1/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: William L. Oppenheim	Respond to of 95453

I'm aware of the BB and their intrepretation, and I am about to make my third purchase of RDC within the past 10 d. Only problem is that when they narrow, they can break either way. However, the fundamentals and long term outlook make this an atractive stock to me, even if there were no such thing as BB's. From an academic standpoint, the only TA which has support, and it is weak at best, is the use of moving averages. All the rest is subject to--well, subjective, intrepretation.