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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wooden ships who wrote (3185)	2/1/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Thank you very much for your summary. RE: "(averaging the CPI and the price deflator)" to determine the inflation rate. That is interesting approach that I haven't heard of before. Did Bob give that as an example in passing, or did he indicate that his model is based on that calculation? By the way, I wasn't able to focus on much of the show today. I did hear Bob mention something about the time period between 1968 and 1882 being a long wait for good returns. I believe he was speaking about investors' expectations at the time. Did you hear that segment? If so, can you help me figure out what Bob's point was? Thanks, I2

To: wooden ships who wrote (3185)	2/2/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Bill Shepherd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

RE: Sunday's salient points I missed Sunday's show, thus greatly appreciate the recap. As usual, you have a wonderful way with words. Best Wishes Bill S

To: wooden ships who wrote (3185)	2/2/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: Sandy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I would also like to thank you Truman. I had to miss B.B. both days this weekend and your synopsis was greatly appreciated. Sandy J

To: wooden ships who wrote (3185)	2/4/1998 8:03:00 PM
From: David Bogdanoff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

TB: Thanks for summary of BB's Sunday program. I heard it but it is certainly nice to have it posted for reference. A couple of comments. Firstly, Barton Biggs, whose views were commented on by BB, does indeed see KO and GE as overvalued (albeit well run companies) and does share this viewpoint with BB. However, Biggs stated in the Barron's article that we are in a world-wide bear market. BB sees great opportunities in the US and Europe, possibly in Asia (for 5% of your portfolio), and is neutral on L. America(the last I heard). Hardly a bear market anywhere. If anyone qualifies as a "bad news bear" it seems to be Biggs. In fact, I disregarded most of his comments because they are in such sharp contrast to BB's recommendations. I don't think Biggs views should be unqualifiedly linked to BB's because they are really quite different. Secondly, I did not hear BB claim a 92% three-year market gain, although I do think he stated successive one year gains of 33%, 22%, and 37%. The 92% is only the arithmetic sum of the three year gains; the compounded result should be used to more accurately state the three year gains. The three year result then becomes 120%! The magic of compounding! One more item I would appreciate comments from anyone on. BB (and now many others) have pointed out the tax advantages of an index fund that results from doing little portfolio adjustment and thus almost never incurring a taxable event from a stock sale. The individual thus pays taxes mostly on dividends paid out by stocks in the fund and these are now quit low. But the capital gains are still locked up in the index fund in the individual stocks that were bought along the way but never sold. With the strong bull market we've had in recent years index funds have had money flowing into them and there there was no need to sell to meet redemptions (i.e. they could be met with new money or possibly the sale of recent stock purchases that have little or no gain in them). What happens when redemptions are greater than new money inflows? This could happen in case of a prolonged market break, a withdrawal of foreign funds, or when the baby boomers need the money to live on. Then sales will be necessary and huge capital gains will be subject to tax and will be paid by the holders of shares in the fund at that time, no matter how long or short a time they have held the shares! Quite a prospect! Comments anyone? I hope I missed something here. :) David