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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (86375)	1/27/2021 8:49:51 PM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Recommended By oldbeachlvr Respond to of 95572

Could be. I hate to say these words, but [whisper]this time is different[/whisper]. Perhaps most important, the Fed reiterated just this afternoon that they will not raise rates until an actual recovery is under way. Not merely projected, but underway. Powell emphasized that. I do believe we are in a correction and it may last a few days, a few days or a month or two. But IMHO it isn't yet time for an actual bear market. Yes, there are some absurd valuations out there, some stocks going haywire with speculation, you all know who they are. But I don't think it is nearly as widespread as in 2000 and clearly interest rates aren't nearly as high. I don't know what margin rates are for most places, I know that one retail broker is advertising 1% margin rates or something like that. All that said, RTS, you may be right.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (86375)	1/31/2021 2:19:45 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Hi RtS, As I remember it the 1999 to early March of 2000 time period had a collapse of orders/cancellations. There was such a demand for semi equipment orders that fabs had double ordered. The equipment makers had gone balls to the wall to build and ship orders. As excess capacity was reached and quickly exceeded, order push outs happened quickly. Chip makers suddenly experienced "end user demand drop offs". This then created a cascading of all sectors. Not sure here, but the entire area was marked with the Fed jacking up interest rates after the Y2K had really pumped in cheap money as a lubricant for any fallout that changing over to 20 from 19 in the year date. That topping era was associated with a flurry of revenueless, profitless, IPO's that featured Dot.com in the name. It was an approximate 15 month final 5 wave up. It was a major long term distribution top, similar to current times, but not as euphoric at least in IPO's. IMO Bob