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Strategies & Market Trends : Option Strategies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THornsby who wrote (2236)	2/1/2021 9:31:53 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 2591

Hi TH, I'm thinking low 40's is a deal. XOM says well depletion for the world is 7% and it will have been going on for very close to a year now. Capex has been hammered for a year globally. I'm no expert but most analysts say $50 to 60$. XOM and CVX have a cost in the 40's,so cash flow supports the dividend on both, although fat as you say. Future 2022 prices will range in the 60's and if demand recovers to 2019 levels with depletion, glut absorbed, and huge reductions in capex, we may see a nice pop in crude's price. I still say oil demand and natural gas demand reductions are greatly exaggerated, and thus provides a long term opportunity to accumulate positions on the few and inevitable dips we get in the next 12-18 months. XOM has been punished more than CVX due to higher debt levels - yet still very manageable vs any othe of the majors, excepting CVX. I have a smaller position in CVX, but they do not have the plastics and chemicals that XOM has - XOM should print money with higher margins once the pandemic is minimized. Almost one year ago CRUDE went negative. To me that marked the bottom. We've had an ABCXABC since and a break out of a very long multiyear declining triangle. No one has liked crude since. I'm buying it here with selling my semi stocks. Bob