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To: Richard Estes who wrote (2761)	2/2/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: Ira Player	Respond to of 12617

Richard, Comment on use of statistics. If the information that 9 out of 10 traders fail is correct, that does not mean that a individual potential trader has a 90% chance of failure. Averages and statistics are only useful to study a group. OF 10 individual entering the trading arena, 8 of 10 may have 100% chance of failure because their personality and psychological profile are not conducive to the business. The other 2 may be at 50%. Enjoy the ride, Ira

To: Richard Estes who wrote (2761)	2/2/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: Darth Trader	Respond to of 12617

I have always been suspicious of statistics that quote high rates of business failure. I compare it to driving through a subdivision and seing a lot of homes for sale, a pessimist says, "they couldn't pay your mortgage" While the truth is they are buying a bigger home somewhere. My first business was moth balled to start a different one, I am sure it showed up as a failure on somebody's list.

To: Richard Estes who wrote (2761)	2/3/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 12617

I have been following this thread of conversation with interest. On the topic of startup businesses, I would have to say that many more businesses fail than succeed. This is based on my experience working directly with small businessmen, both those who have went bankrupt and others who have been very successful,one in particular ending up being the leader in his industry and sold his business for over $100 million dollars. This is a very astute and successful businessman. I find the biggest problem with small business owners is that they did not do their research and preparation in the opening of a new business. They thought: "Gee. I want to be my own boss. If that store down the line called OfficeMax can do it, so can I". There is much more to the success of a business that pursuing ones pipe dreams. There are skills and resources that need to be in place. Also, a very good knowledge of the business helps to a great deal. I have found most new businessmen do not do their research as for instance in terms of a business plan. This shows up in the anti-competative business practices they adopt and the very short sighted, self-focused amateur approach to business they have. I have seen numerous examples of this here in Tucson which can be called the "City of the Small Businessman". As soon as a smarter businessman looks at them as competition and accordingly changes their approach to business, this amateur business loses their customer base very quickly while not really understanding the cause of what happened to them which IMO was very predictable. Even when there is initial success, their focus on the customer starts moving inward to themselves and the internal aspects of their business. If they manage to get past this hurdle, they end up attempting the self-desctructive approach of retaining complete control of the business and continue to respond to short term goals (react to the swings in business). They cannot move from being an entrepeneur to a people manager of a business. The approach they used in the beginning which succeeded can very well end up finishing their business off because it takes a completely different approach to continue and grow a successful business. So there are many obstacles in their path that IMO most business owners do not make it through. After all, we are talking about human beings here and their assciated idiosyncracies and self-desctructive approaches that reflect in their business practices who in many cases had no experience in running a business, and with many even no experience in the industry they chose to operate in. Heck, many do not even research the rules, regulations, and business practices of the industry they operate in. Very naive people, but this approach is all too common. I have to questions for the author of that article that indicated the majority of businesses were still operational after several years. One is how did the article go about deriving their sample? Also, what is their definition of a business being still "alive"? I have seen many businesses in town that never were able to make it past the size of several employees who are struggling to make it to the next day. Watch what happens during the next economic downturn. Most of this type of business will cease to exist. IMO the only measure of the furture prospects of a business is how they endure increased competition and economic downturns. It is easy to shade oneself from general business realities when you are a very small company. As soon as you attempt to grow beyond this size where competition becomes a bigger part of the picture, or when the economy begins to weaken and turn downward, it is an entirely different story. This economy IMO has been very easy on the small businessman. Still, Richard, I understand what you are saying with respect to systems for day trading and I agree with much of what you have said. I just do not think the example of business startups will lead to productive results in the conversation. Bob Graham